XRP is at the end of the 'golden triangle', and the breakthrough signal at the 3.2 resistance level is becoming clearer! Currently, the 1-hour chart shows multiple positive signals: the price is tightly hugging the upper Bollinger Band, MACD golden cross is continuously expanding, and the main capital is accelerating concentration. For holders, it’s essential to maintain rhythm; those who haven’t entered the market can focus on the following analysis - this round of market may welcome a key explosive period.
Technical aspect: Bullish momentum continues to be released, breakthrough signals are significant.
- Bollinger Bands 'channel squeezing': Current price 3.19, close to upper resistance level 3.2. In this pattern, the price will either break through strongly or experience a short-term pullback; however, the Bollinger Bands are gradually widening, a typical characteristic before a market acceleration.
- MACD golden cross accumulation: The DIF line steadily crosses above the DEA line, and the red bars continue to extend, indicating that bullish energy is still accumulating and has not shown signs of exhaustion. Historical data shows that this type of golden cross on the 1-hour chart often accompanies a 3%-5% short-term surge.
- Bears under pressure awaiting breakthrough: The market shows a large accumulation of short positions around 3.2; once the price breaks through this level, the 'liquidation effect' triggered by short covering may quickly push the market to 3.5.
News aspect: Multiple favorable factors, capital flow is positive.
- Ripple lawsuit reaches a critical window: Market expects that the SEC and Ripple settlement agreement may be reached in July; if negative news is exhausted, XRP will lift the 'compliance shackles', and institutional fund entry expectations will rise.
- Major whale address activity: On-chain data shows that a large wallet increased its holdings by 240 million XRP (approximately 760 million yuan) within an hour, clearly not a retail behavior, suggesting that large funds are positioning in advance.
- Exchange reserves plummet: Binance XRP reserves saw a net outflow of 180 million coins in 24 hours, and a wave of withdrawals often indicates an increase in market capital concentration, preparing for market activation.
Market forecast: Two paths, operational strategy clear
- Aggressive scenario: If today strongly breaks through 3.2, bearish liquidations will boost the market, with the first target looking at 3.3 (previous daily high), and the second target directly aiming at 3.5 (psychological level).
- Stable scenario: Short-term may retrace to the middle Bollinger Band around 3.10 for accumulation, followed by a second surge, with expectations to stabilize above 3.25 within the week.
Retail trader operational strategy
- Existing positions: Set a trailing stop loss near 3.19, exit promptly if it drops below 3.15; after breaking through 3.2, can increase positions accordingly.
- Wait and see: Can decisively build positions when retracing to 3.10; if it drops below 3.0, strict stop loss should be applied.
- Urgent entry: Current price 3.19 can first build a 30% position; after breaking through 3.2, chase up 40%, keeping 30% of funds to handle fluctuations.
Risk warning: Beware of 'false breakout' traps.
If the price quickly falls back below 3.15 after reaching 3.2, and the MACD red bars significantly shorten, it may be a false signal to attract buyers. It is essential to strictly adhere to stop loss discipline; preserving capital is the core principle to cope with volatility.
Currently, XRP is at a critical node of bullish and bearish games, with technical and news aspects resonating, and breakthrough momentum gradually emerging. Rational positioning and strict risk control will better grasp potential opportunities.
