10 years ago, I charged into the crypto world with 30,000 yuan, now my assets exceed 10 million. The most ironic part of this industry is: 90% of people come in with dreams of getting rich, and in the end, they lose everything. Today, I will say some hard truths; understanding these will at least save you 5 years of detours.
One, the 3 iron rules for survival (100 times more important than technology)
1️⃣ Capital management is not a strategy, it's a lifesaver
- Pits that beginners must avoid: Going all-in on altcoins, losing everything in 3 days
- My life-saving rules:
✓ Divide capital into 5 parts, use only 1 part at a time
✓ Single loss ≤ 10%, monthly loss ≥ 20% immediately stop
✓ **Remember: Only by living can you talk about making money**
2️⃣ Those who follow the trend thrive, those who go against the trend perish
- In 2021, ETH went from 1000U to 4000U, it’s not that I can predict, but I understand:
✓ 30/120 day moving averages trending up = trend confirmed (pullbacks are buying points)
✓ Moving averages diverging downward = bear market starting (rebounds are traps)
- Market trends like tides, you must be a surfer, don't be a stumbling block
3️⃣ The simpler the indicators, the better
- Get rid of those flashy indicators! I now only use:
✓ MACD: Golden cross above 0 axis + volume = real rise
✓ Volume: shrinking up = inducing buyers, expanding down = real drop
- Indicators are the rearview mirror, trends are the steering wheel
Two, the 3 major pitfalls beginners must avoid
🚫 Long-term holding ≠ financial freedom
- Besides BTC/ETH, holding other coins for 3 years ≈ suicide
- Bloody lesson: Holding altcoins through 2018, 10U → 0.1U
- My strategy:
✓ BTC/ETH accounts for 50%
✓ Sell other coins when they reach the target, never get attached
🚫 Leverage is a knife, not money
- I've seen 10x leverage double in a day, and I've seen 30 million go to zero in one night
- Advice for newcomers:
✓ Don't touch leverage in the first 2 years
✓ Veterans at most 5x leverage, position ≤30%, stop-loss 8% must cut
🚫 Chasing hotspots = giving away heads
- When AI coins/DeFi coins surge, retail investors are buying, I am waiting:
✓ Sideways for 3 months at low levels + volume breakout
✓ **Better to miss 10 opportunities than to step into 1 pit**
Three, the ultimate answer for short and long-term
🤔 Question: Should I do short-term or long-term?
💡 Answer: **Bull market long-term, bear market short-term**
- Bull market (70% long-term):
✓ BTC/ETH + leading projects in the sector (like Layer2's ARB)
✓ Hold if the moving average doesn't break, ride the trend completely
- Bear market (70% short-term):
✓ Watch 15-minute/1-hour K-line
✓ Make 3-5% and run, small amounts add up
- Always keep 30% cash: emergency funds + opportunity bullets
The last piece of life-saving advice
The crypto world can change fate, but only rewards disciplined people. Over the past 10 years, I have been liquidated and lost money, but I eventually stood up by: repeating simple things.
If you are still losing money, stop first! Engrave the above words in your mind.
I am@天机看势 , good at short to medium-term contract trading, follow me for daily investment tips, detailed strategies can be found at@天机看势
