📈 Latest Inflation Data – June 2025
The annual inflation rate (CPI) rose to 2.7% in June, compared to 2.4% in May, exceeding expectations of 2.6%.
On a monthly basis, it increased by 0.3%, the highest rate since January.
Core inflation (excluding food and energy) recorded 2.9% annually, with a slight monthly increase of 0.2%.
Reasons for this rise include: customs fees (tariffs) on imported goods such as electronics and furniture, in addition to the housing and food sectors.
🎙️ Signals from the Federal Reserve
John Williams (President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York) stated that the current interest rate policy (4.25–4.50%) is "just right," expressing concern that tariffs could raise inflation by about a percentage point until early 2026, necessitating keeping interest rates high during the July meeting.
Lorie Logan (Dallas Fed) warned that it is likely to keep rates "longer" to ensure reaching the inflation target of 2%, considering the impact of tariffs.
Susan Collins (Boston Fed) noted that tariffs have led to an increase in core inflation, which could reach ~3% by the end of the year, but she emphasized that the economic impact may be "moderate."
Wells Fargo reiterated its warning and expected that the first rate cut will be in September, not July.
