The Altcoin Season Index has risen above 30 points for the first time in months, however, Bitcoin still sets the tone for the entire market. Despite the gradual recovery of altcoins, their growth has not yet developed into a full-fledged trend. But reversal signals are already appearing — especially among coins from the top 100 by market capitalization.
The alt season has not started yet, but it is already looming on the horizon
The Altcoin Season Index tracks how many altcoins from the top 100 outperform Bitcoin in terms of returns over 90 days. If the number of such coins exceeds 75%, an active growth phase for altcoins begins.
In June, the index collapsed to 12 points — only 12 projects were able to outperform $BTC . The reason is the growing dominance of Bitcoin, which reached 66%. However, in July, the situation began to change: the index jumped above 30, and now 32 altcoins have shown better results than Bitcoin, which added 40% over three months.
Meme coins are back in the spotlight
Among the leaders of growth are meme coins. $PENGU and MemeCore have grown by more than 500% over three months. $HYPE from HyperLiquid showed growth of over 230%. These figures again remind us of the speculative component of the market, but also confirm a revival of interest in alternative tokens.
Such spikes often precede a broader wave — when fundamental projects also start to move. It is too early to talk about a stable trend, but the influx of liquidity into risky assets may accelerate the onset of the alt season.
Bitcoin's dominance is still too high
Despite a partial decline, Bitcoin's share in the market remains around 63%. For comparison: in historical alt seasons, BTC dominance fell significantly deeper — to 41% in 2017 and to 39% in 2021.
The current dynamics do not guarantee a repeat of the past, but indicate an important threshold: as long as dominance is above 60%, Bitcoin maintains control over market movements. Only when it falls below 50% can we speak of a real rotation towards altcoins.
What’s next?
The alt season has not yet arrived, but the market is beginning to show signs of readiness for it. The index has confidently emerged from stagnation, and interest in high-risk tokens has revived.
The decisive factor remains the dominance of Bitcoin. If its share continues to decline, the chances of an alt season will sharply increase. Otherwise, the growth of individual coins will remain sporadic and volatile.
