As of July 17, 2025, Bitcoin and Ethereum are showing a volatile upward trend amid a game of policy uncertainty and technological upgrade dividends. Currently, Bitcoin's price is fluctuating around $119,300, while Ethereum's price is $3,380, up 0.5% and 6.9% respectively from yesterday's closing price. The following provides in-depth analysis and operational suggestions based on the latest market dynamics and on-chain data:
Bitcoin (BTC) Market Analysis
Price and Trend
Bitcoin's current price is holding steady at the key support level of $118,000, rebounding approximately 3.1% from the July 16 low of $115,678. Technical indicators show that the middle band of the Bollinger Bands has moved up to $116,500, the RSI has rebounded from the oversold area (<30) to 48, and the MACD histogram is contracting, indicating a short-term technical correction is needed. On-chain data shows that the net outflow from exchanges has exceeded 12,000 BTC for eight consecutive days, with 74% of circulating tokens locked for over two years, showing no change in supply tightness.
Key Drivers
1. Policy Risk Game: The three cryptocurrency bills, including the Trump-supported GENIUS Act, failed in a procedural vote in the House with a result of 196:223. However, Trump stated on the evening of July 16 that he has convinced 11 Republican lawmakers to switch their votes in favor, and a second vote may occur in the early hours of July 17. If the bill passes, it will establish a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins, boosting market confidence; if it fails again, it may trigger short-term selling pressure.
2. Institutional Holding Resilience: BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) has surpassed 700,000 holdings, valued at approximately $75.5 billion, indicating that institutional long-term allocation demand remains unchanged. However, caution is needed as short-term funds may take profits due to fluctuations from the bill vote results.
3. Technical Resistance and Support: The strong resistance level above is at $123,300 (previous high), while the key support level below is at $115,250 (50% Fibonacci level). If the price holds above $119,000, a technical rebound may begin.
Bitcoin (BTC) Market Analysis
Price and Trend
Bitcoin's current price is holding steady at the key support level of $118,000, rebounding approximately 3.1% from the July 16 low of $115,678. Technical indicators show that the middle band of the Bollinger Bands has moved up to $116,500, the RSI has rebounded from the oversold area (<30) to 48, and the MACD histogram is contracting, indicating a short-term technical correction is needed. On-chain data shows that the net outflow from exchanges has exceeded 12,000 BTC for eight consecutive days, with 74% of circulating tokens locked for over two years, showing no change in supply tightness.
Key Drivers
1. Policy Risk Game: The three cryptocurrency bills, including the Trump-supported GENIUS Act, failed in a procedural vote in the House with a result of 196:223. However, Trump stated on the evening of July 16 that he has convinced 11 Republican lawmakers to switch their votes in favor, and a second vote may occur in the early hours of July 17. If the bill passes, it will establish a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins, boosting market confidence; if it fails again, it may trigger short-term selling pressure.
2. Institutional Holding Resilience: BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) has surpassed 700,000 holdings, valued at approximately $75.5 billion, indicating that institutional long-term allocation demand remains unchanged. However, caution is needed as short-term funds may take profits due to fluctuations from the bill vote results.
3. Technical Resistance and Support: The strong resistance level above is at $123,300 (previous high), while the key support level below is at $115,250 (50% Fibonacci level). If the price holds above $119,000, a technical rebound may begin.
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BTC
119,720.39
+0.42%
