What's up, my people, the situation is like this: out of nowhere, three heavyweight players in the crypto world, the whales 🐳, have started accumulating Ethereum as if the world were about to end. We're talking about a massive purchase of over $540 million in ETH. Imagine, one of them, through FalconX, took home $213.8 million and the other two went to Kraken to pull out over 106,000 ETH. This is no small matter, friends. If these monsters are going all in, it’s because they see something that most don’t. They are positioning themselves for a strong change, like sharks sensing blood in the water. 🩸
But, be careful!, because not everything is rosy. Things get weird when you see Ethereum's NVT.
That thing skyrocketed to 194, the highest level of the year. For those who know, such a high NVT is like a red flag 🚩; it means that the price is rising, but the real network activity is lagging behind. It's like the car is going 200 km/h, but the engine is making a weird noise. Historically, after such a peak, the market takes a breather or goes down. This is where traders separate from hooligans.
And as if that weren't enough, short-term HODLers are coming back with force.
This is seen in the "HODL waves" which, to put it simply, is like the pulse of speculation. When this metric goes up, it’s because the more impatient ones are returning to the game, ready to buy and sell quickly. This adds a dose of adrenaline to the market, making it more volatile than gasoline in a fire. 🔥
The other data that makes us think is the Stock-to-Flow (S2F),
which also shot up to 592. This indicates that ETH is becoming rarer than a ten-peso bill at a concert. When there’s less supply and demand remains (or increases), the price should theoretically go up. However, not everything is an exact science.
Now, the battlefield is between $3,100 and $3,200. The liquidation map from Binance is showing a lot of short positions around there, like a trap.
If the bulls manage to break that level and turn it into support, we could see a strong rally. But if not, it could unleash a cascade of sales that would send ETH back to the cave. 📉
The truth of all this is that we are at a breaking point. The big players are betting heavily, which gives you confidence, but the technical indicators are urging caution. Will it be the master move or the "fakeout" of the year? We need to keep our eyes wide open. 🕵️♂️$ETH
