2025-07-16 16:00

  • BTC+1.49%

  • TRUMP+6.11%

Key Takeaways

  • TRUMP’s 40 million token unlock mirrors April’s breakout setup, which triggered an 80% weekly rally off cycle lows. With two catalysts fueling momentum, is a $17 breakout next?

Token unlocks are a double-edged sword in the crypto market. And Official Trump [TRUMP] is a case in point.

Even with solid tokenomics on paper, the memecoin has been stuck in a sideways chop for over two months, repeatedly failing to break above the $14 ceiling.

In such a climate, the addition of another 40 million TRUMP tokens might appear to threaten the $9 support level. But this time, according to AMBCrypto, the move appears far more strategic than random.

Calculated timing, measured flows

Zoom in on TRUMP’s daily chart, and mid-April stands out like a rocket launch. The token bounced from its Q1 bottom at $7 and ripped nearly 80% in a week, closing at $16.44, marking its strongest move in months.

Since then, though, it’s been a slow bleed. Three lower lows, no clean support flips, reinforcing a classic bearish structure.

But zoom in closer, and things get interesting.

That same 80% rally? It happened right as 40 million tokens were unlocked on the 18th of April.

Instead of a dump, TRUMP pumped, logging a 7.96% daily gain the next day, registering its biggest candle that month.

Fast-forward to now, and the setup feels oddly familiar. Back in April, Bitcoin [BTC] broke above $86k, and that breakout sparked a capital rotation into risk-on plays like TRUMP.

This time, BTC’s range-bound, but memecoins are heating up again, with a 4% jump in total market cap, still holding firm above $60 billion.

So, can TRUMP tap into that momentum again, and is the $10 breakout finally within striking distance?

Two catalysts fuel the case for a TRUMP reversal

Beyond the macro structure, a second catalyst is in play. 

The 40 million TRUMP token unlock is set to “coincide” with renewed speculation around President Donald Trump’s “Crypto Week”. It’s a trigger that could drive rotational flows back into majors and high-beta memecoins.

Whether planned or not, this liquidity event has the potential to act as rocket fuel if the bid-side liquidity steps in. One key metric to monitor here is the TRUMP/BTC ratio.

Back in April, during the last risk-on pivot, the ratio ripped 88% off its all-time low, signaling a strong relative strength breakout versus Bitcoin.

In fact, that move was backed by a 23% spike in 10k+ TRUMP wallets, signaling a clear uptick in whale positioning and the strongest accumulation since January.

Now, with two catalysts in play and sentiment flipping risk-on, the setup is starting to mirror April.

If the move sticks, an 80% leg from spot could send TRUMP toward $17.10, lining up what might be its most explosive week yet.

Source: AMBCrypto

Disclaimer: The current content is sourced from third-party perspectives or directly translated by AI from third-party perspectives. CoinEx does not guarantee the authenticity, accuracy, and originality of the content, and it does not constitute any investment advice from CoinEx. The prices of cryptocurrencies are highly volatile, please be aware of the potential risks.

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