Bitcoin's code stipulates that the mining reward is halved every 210,000 blocks (approximately every four years) until all are mined in 2140. Because of the halving rule, Bitcoin's four-year bull and bear cycles are formed.

The historical halving points are:

In November 2012, 50 BTC - 25 BTC

In July 2016, 25 BTC - 12.5 BTC

In May 2020, 12.5 BTC - 6.25 BTC

In April 2024, 6.25 BTC - 3.125 BTC

From a technical mechanism perspective, the next halving will occur in 2028, and the cycle logic has not changed.

According to this cycle logic, I have drawn a comparison chart of these cycles (Chart 2). After each halving, Bitcoin reaches a new high, and the duration from the halving day to the new high day is approximately 540 days.

After the halving in November 2012, the increase was 10752%

After the halving in July 2016, the increase was 2263%

After the halving in May 2020, the increase was 662%

After the halving in April 2024, the current increase is 81%

The magical aspect of the cycle is that the time interval for the price of Bitcoin to reach a new high after halving is basically consistent for each round, around 540 days, and this has been the case for the first three rounds. Therefore, it can be roughly estimated that the new high price of this cycle will appear around October this year, which is about 5 months away.

Calculating with an average price of $65000, this cycle has only increased by 81% after halving. If Bitcoin reaches $150,000, the increase would be 131%, which seems a bit low.

From a mathematical perspective, I analyzed that each round's multiplier is decreasing. The multipliers for the previous rounds were 4.75 and 3.41, so the increase for this round should not exceed 3. I estimated the multipliers of 2 and 2.5, which are 331% and 264%, respectively. (See Chart 3)

$65000 with an increase of 331% would go to $215,150
$65000 with an increase of 264% would reach $171,600

These two values are my rough estimates, and I believe this year's peak is likely within this range.

As for reaching the price of $150,000, the certainty is quite high.

The above estimates are based on the premise that the four-year cycle is still effective. If the cycle changes or fails, it will be outside the scope of discussion.

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