The FOMC meeting on July 19, 2025, is likely to keep interest rates at 4.25%–4.50%, with no signs of increasing interest rates.
Stable economic data along with a cautious stance from the Fed reinforces a trend of patience, prioritizing further monitoring of inflation and employment developments before changing policies.
MAIN CONTENT
There is a 96.9% chance that the Fed will not adjust interest rates in the July 2025 meeting.
The June 2025 meeting shows increased caution as many Fed officials prioritize keeping interest rates stable.
The level of inflation and employment situation in the United States indicate no urgent pressure forcing the Fed to act suddenly.
The FOMC meeting in June 2025 shows a more cautious Fed stance regarding interest rate cuts.
The CEO of a major investment firm on Wall Street commented that the meeting on June 18, 2025, affirmed the Fed's priority to keep interest rates stable, as evidenced by the increasing number of Fed officials no longer proposing further cuts this year, rising to 7 from 4 previously.
Previously, the last interest rate cut occurred on December 18, 2024, with a reduction of 25 basis points, following a series of cuts that began in September 2024. The increasing number of officials proposing to maintain policy stability indicates concerns about persistent inflation still remain, although key indicators have cooled.
What current economic data influences the Fed's decision?
An economic analyst from the U.S. Monetary Policy Institute stated that inflation currently holds at 2.7% in June from a low of 2.3% in April, signaling that inflation is not yet fully controllable.
At the same time, the unemployment rate has remained stable around 4.1% to 4.2% since the beginning of the year, indicating a slight cooling in the labor market but still strong, allowing the Fed to maintain a patient attitude without rushing to change policy.
How does politics influence the Fed's decision?
Mr. Donald Trump, while he was President, repeatedly criticized Chairman Jerome Powell, urging him to cut interest rates to 1% to stimulate growth and reduce government borrowing costs. However, Mr. Powell affirmed that the Fed would make decisions based on real economic data, not influenced by political pressure.
We are committed to relying on data, not politics, to maintain stable interest rates and control inflation.
Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Fed, speaks in June 2025
How does stabilizing interest rates affect the cryptocurrency market?
According to veteran trader Matthew Dixon, the Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged is a positive signal for risk assets like cryptocurrencies, helping the market maintain stable growth.
Experience from previous cycles shows that when interest rates are stable or decreasing, investors tend to seek higher returns by investing in Bitcoin and Altcoin. Conversely, unexpected turns from the Fed often cause significant volatility in the cryptocurrency market.
The current stability of monetary policy will support investor sentiment, driving capital flows into risk assets, including Bitcoin and Altcoins.
Matthew Dixon, veteran trader, July 16, 2025
Overview of interest rate policy 2024 – 2025
Key Events Interest Rate 09/2024 Sudden cut of 50 basis points 4.75% – 5.00% 11/2024 Next cut of 25 basis points 4.50% – 4.75% 12/2024 Third cut of 25 basis points 4.25% – 4.50% 06/2025 Keeping interest rates at 4.25% – 4.50% Expected 07/2025 Keeping interest rates at 4.25% – 4.50%
Frequently Asked Questions
What notable points are there from the FOMC meeting on July 19, 2025?
The Fed is forecasted to keep interest rates unchanged with a 96.9% probability, reflecting stability in monetary policy to further monitor economic data.
How does the current inflation situation affect interest rate decisions?
Inflation has decreased from 3% to about 2.7% but is not yet fully controlled, so the Fed has not taken strong action to raise or cut interest rates immediately.
Is there any political pressure affecting the Fed?
The Fed Chairman maintains an independent stance, making decisions based on actual data, not under political pressure from leaders even when requests for deeper rate cuts arise.
How does maintaining stable interest rates impact the cryptocurrency market?
Stable interest rates encourage risk-taking investors to engage in Bitcoin and Altcoin, helping the cryptocurrency market maintain a positive trend.
What is the recent history of the Fed's interest rate changes?
The Fed has cut interest rates three times from September 2024 to December 2024, then kept them unchanged in recent meetings such as June 2025.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/lai-suat-kho-tang-969/
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