Today's Market Overview

1. GENIUS Bill: Short-term Pressure, Long-term Positive

The procedural vote in the House has temporarily stalled the bill's progress (13 Republicans joined forces with Democrats), but the core provisions (1:1 reserves for stablecoins, regulated licensing) still received majority support from both parties. The Senate has passed it with a high vote, and a re-vote is expected before August. Short-term sentiment is volatile, but if implemented long-term, it will confirm stablecoins, attract traditional funding, and benefit the ecosystem.

2. CPI Data: Moderately Supports Market Resilience

June CPI rose 0.1% year-on-year, with core inflation at 0.7%, indicating marginal alleviation of inflation pressure. The market has absorbed expectations for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in July, and core data below expectations may delay subsequent hikes, leading to a rebound in risk appetite (U.S. tech stocks rebounded by 2.3%), with cryptocurrencies expected to recover in tandem.

3. China-U.S. Negotiations: Positive Signals

The U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that the deadline for the tariff truce (August 12) is flexible, and the negotiation atmosphere is good. If the truce is extended, it will reduce market uncertainty and enhance willingness to allocate risk assets. Stablecoins may benefit from the expansion of cross-border payment scenarios (current annual transfer volume exceeds $27 trillion).

4. Whale Movements: Selling Pressure Manageable

Eight ancient whales transferred 80,000 BTC (cost $0.78, worth over $8 billion), but the new addresses show characteristics of institutional batch selling. Coinbase OTC averages $300 million daily, and the selling pressure over 12 months accounts for only 1% of daily trading volume, indicating ample market support and potential optimization of chip structure.

Next, we will focus on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on July 26 and the tariff negotiations on August 12. #CPI数据来袭