An analyst from the CryptoQuant data platform recently tweeted that Bitcoin has not yet reached its highest peak in the current cycle. Specifically, the 'Peak Signal' — an indicator that often appears at important market peaks — has not been recorded at this time.
What is the 'Peak Signal'?
According to analyst AxelAdlerJr, the 'Peak Signal' will appear when the 'normalized score of the Market-to-Realized Price (MVRV) index combined with the Value Days Destroyed (VDD) ratio over 30 days and 365 days reaches or exceeds 1.'
This signal plays a role in determining when the market is overheating and is likely to enter a correction phase.
Bitcoin broke through $122,000 but has not stabilized
Earlier this week, Bitcoin surged past $122,000 thanks to renewed interest from major financial institutions and favorable policies. However, this upward momentum could not be sustained for long — the price has adjusted and is currently trading around $118,231 (at the time of writing).
Bitcoin enters a new phase, not relying on leverage
Mr. Alexander Zahnd, interim CEO of the blockchain platform Zilliqa, believes that the cryptocurrency market is entering a new phase where 'the confidence of financial institutions is driving more stable demand.'
He also emphasized the quality of this rally:
“This is a rally based on the spot market, not reliant on leverage, and occurring in a relatively calm market environment. That indicates a more mature and sustainable structure compared to previous cycles.”
Next price target: $123,200 – $130,000?
Zahnd believes that if the current momentum continues, Bitcoin could easily break through the resistance level of $123,200, then aim for the $126,500 range and finally $130,000.
However, he also notes that a drop to the $115,000 – $112,000 range is possible and still within a long-term positive trend.
At a macro level, factors such as rising public debt, prolonged inflation, and instability in monetary policy are contributing to strengthening confidence in Bitcoin as a long-term 'store of value' asset. According to Zahnd, these drivers will persist in the near future.
Only stronger participation from institutions can push Bitcoin to $150,000
Mr. Andrejs Balans, Risk Management Director at the European fintech platform YouHodler, believes that a surge in Bitcoin price to $150,000 cannot solely rely on capital inflows into the market.
According to him:
“Although institutional access to Bitcoin has increased through ETFs and custody services, many senior leaders in the banking industry still maintain a cautious attitude, viewing crypto as an area of concern but not yet a strategic priority.”
Balans emphasizes that only when there is a widespread change in the mindset of major financial institutions can the price of BTC significantly accelerate to levels like $150,000.
Summary
No peak signal: The 'Peak Signal' has not appeared, indicating that Bitcoin's rally may not be over.
Healthy growth: This rally is supported by spot trading, not relying on leverage.
Next target: Bitcoin could aim for $130,000 if it maintains momentum, but a correction to $112,000 is also still in an upward trend.
More institutional momentum needed: Only with deeper participation from institutions can BTC quickly reach $150,000.
In the context of a globally uncertain economy, Bitcoin's role as a store of value is increasingly affirmed, but the path to reaching new heights still requires more time and broader support from traditional finance.