On July 14th, Trump announced that he would impose a 100% 'secondary tariff' on countries buying Russian oil. Coincidentally, Bitcoin reached an all-time high on the same day, which is surely not a coincidence. Now, money around the world is looking for a safe place to hide, and it seems that Bitcoin has become the 'safe deposit box' for big funds.
Let me highlight the core point:
Regarding the threat of a 100% tariff, Trump demanded a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine within 50 days; otherwise, he would impose a 100% tariff on third countries buying Russian energy. However, Russia's stance is very firm and has directly rejected it. As a result, the conflict may not stop, increasing the risks in the global energy supply chain.
Let's talk about Bitcoin's 'digital gold' ability, which is now showing itself:
There are previous examples; when the Russia-Ukraine conflict first started, Bitcoin surged by 20% in one day, but later it fell by 65% due to the Fed raising interest rates. However, the new situation is that in June during the Middle East conflict, Bitcoin only fluctuated ±3%, showing less reaction.
Moreover, Trump's policies are like a switch for Bitcoin's short-term ups and downs: In April, when he announced tax increases, Bitcoin dropped to $74,500 in one day, causing 210,000 people to get liquidated; in May, with news of policy loosening, Bitcoin surged by 13% to $83,600.
These major institutions on Wall Street currently have three strategic approaches:
First, to hedge against stagflation, once tariffs are mentioned, oil prices may rise, leading to more severe inflation, making Bitcoin a new anti-inflation asset.
Secondly, there’s speculation about interest rate cuts; the market thinks there might be four rate cuts this year. In previous rate cut scenarios, Bitcoin has risen much more than the Nasdaq.
Thirdly, there is a lack of trust in fiat currency. Matt Hougan, the Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, believes that regardless of how the tariff war turns out, Bitcoin is a winner; whether deals are made or not, it benefits.
Ai Yu summarized a 'three laws of getting rich':
Trump's tariff war is basically like giving away money!
If he were to shout '100% tax increase' wildly before September, the rise in oil prices would panic the world, and at that moment, Bitcoin would be the 'safe box'!
If Putin takes a hard stance and says 'keep fighting', and the conflict escalates, Wall Street will definitely scramble to buy Bitcoin!
If the Fed really cuts rates four times this year, with money being spread everywhere, Bitcoin could potentially surge to $1 million!
So I think that the more Trump stirs things up, the greater the differences between major powers, and the stronger the long-term bullish momentum for Bitcoin! Every drop before September could be an opportunity.
Ai Yu serves those ambitious individuals looking to make money; following me is definitely a good choice!
