🔥 CPI Data Ignites the Crypto Market! The Fed's Rate Cut in September is Uncertain, After BTC's Huge Shock, Is It a Trap or an Opportunity?
📉 1. CPI Data Interpretation: The Ghost of Inflation Returns
June CPI year-on-year 2.7%, reaching a 4-month high, core inflation stubbornly maintained at 2.9%.
Revealing the Pusher:
Trump's Tariff Effects Fermenting: Prices of goods such as furniture and automobiles rising rapidly, companies forced to pass on costs after exhausting inventories.
High Costs of Energy and Services: Geopolitical conflicts driving up crude oil prices, service sector inflation only slightly receding.
Market Expectations Change Drastically: The probability of a rate cut in September plummeted from 80% to 54%-58%, the dollar index skyrocketed by 2.1% breaking through 98.5.
💣 2. The Fed's "Tightrope Dilemma": Changing Path of Rate Cuts
Policy Dilemma:
Cutting Rates Too Early → Inflation Out of Control (Dallas Fed President Logan warns: "Could lead to deeper economic trauma").
Excessive Tightening → Damaged Job Market (Missing the timing may force more aggressive rate cuts later).
Key Signals:
July 30 FOMC Meeting: If core CPI exceeds 5% for three consecutive months, restarting rate hikes cannot be ruled out.
⚡ 3. The Crypto Market's Ice and Fire: BTC Plummets vs ETH Surges
Bitcoin's Huge Shock:
After the CPI announcement, it flashed down from $123,000 to $115,700, with $550 million liquidated in 24 hours.
Ethereum Stands Out:
Breaking through $3,140 against the trend, ETH/BTC exchange rate hits a 4-month high (0.0266), with over $1 billion inflow in a single day.
🚀 4. Investor Strategies: How to Hedge Against "Stagflation Storm"?
Short-term Defense:
Keep a close eye on PPI data + Fed statements, if the resistance at $119,250 is broken, BTC may regain upward momentum.
Hedge allocation in stablecoins + gold to prevent spillover risk from US stock market corrections.
Long-term Ambush:
Bottom-fishing signals emerging: BTC inventory on exchanges drops to a historical low of 2.12 million coins, whale addresses holding over a thousand coins reach a peak this year.
Dual Track Layout:
RWA Leaders (Ondo, Securitize): Benefiting from the influx of institutional funds with a 58.4% share of Ethereum.
Undervalued Public Chains (SEI, SUI): BTC's sideways period may trigger a rebound.
💎 Ultimate Conclusion
The resurgence of inflation is by no means the end of a bull market! The current volatility is just the market's knee-jerk reaction to the "delay in rate cuts," while on-chain data and ETF inflows (totaling over $52 billion) have paved the way for a long bull market.
👉 What do you think? Bottom-fishing or exiting under the CPI storm? Clash in the comments section!
