CoinVoice has learned that the French Foreign Trade Bank stated that if no agreement is reached between the EU and the U.S. by August 1, the EU will implement the first round of countermeasures in retaliation. In addition, the European Commission is also formulating a second set of countermeasures.
Previously, in the latest macroeconomic forecast for the Eurozone by staff, the impact of a 'severe scenario' was estimated to be a general 20% tariff on all goods by the United States, met with reciprocal retaliation from the EU. This scenario is expected to lower the Eurozone's GDP annual growth rate by 0.4 percentage points in 2025 and 2026 compared to the baseline scenario. If the tariffs on EU goods were raised to 30% by the U.S., leading to reciprocal retaliation from the EU, the losses for the Eurozone GDP would be even more significant, with an expected drop of about 0.5 percentage points in 2025 and about 0.6 percentage points in 2026 compared to the baseline scenario.
However, the French Foreign Trade Bank still believes that, although the likelihood is low, there is still a chance that negotiations could successfully reach an agreement before August 1. Otherwise, under pressure from Europe, especially from the markets and American companies, the 'deadline' may be postponed again. [Original link]