Investors who recently established short positions in the ETH 2980 area are facing severe tests. We understand the agony of prices soaring after a stop-loss or the imminent liquidation from holding on. Please remain calm, let’s analyze the situation from market behavior and macro perspectives to find a way out.

Core source of pressure:

CPI 'expectation difference' trap: The core CPI annual rate of 2.9% seems to meet expectations, but the internal structure falls short of 'hawkish' expectations. The main force seizes the opportunity to smash prices to induce short selling, quickly reversing after attracting follow-up selling, with 2980 becoming a key position for the bulls and bears.

Sudden remarks catalyst: Trump calls for an 'emergency 3% rate cut', significantly boosting risk appetite and providing short-term emotional momentum for bulls. The potential impact of tariff policies remains uncertain, and bears need not be overly despairing.

Staged relief strategy:

Triggered strong liquidation: Learn profound lessons, and in the future, strictly adhere to the iron rule that individual risk should not exceed 5% of the principal.

Deeply trapped (floating loss > 30%):

Core: Dynamic management, avoid hard resistance that expands risk.

Strategy: If the price pushes above the strong resistance at 3150, cautiously and in batches, establish some hedged short positions (e.g., 30-50% of the original position), aiming to optimize the overall risk structure, not merely diluting costs. New positions should improve the overall cost (e.g., 3050-3080). Wait for the pressure level to retreat, prioritize closing the hedged positions to lock in rebound profits.

Iron rule: Total margin usage ≤ 80%, leaving survival space.

Protection options: Buy call options at key resistance levels as 'insurance', or large funds may consider spot buying for hedging, using price differences within the fluctuation range to reduce risk.

Slightly trapped (floating loss < 20%):

Keep a close eye on the 3120 watershed:

Effectively breaking below 3120: Weak signal, assess risk and consider adding shorts at the right time, targeting the 3050 area for relief.

Stabilize and break through 3120: Be sure to seize the rebound opportunity in the 3140-3153 area to reduce positions/close positions! Accepting controllable losses (e.g., 3%) far outweighs the risk of liquidation.

Key observation points for the future:

Federal Reserve changes: Selection of Powell's successor has begun. If a 'hawkish' candidate comes to power, expectations for a rate cut in September may be thwarted, posing a potential major downside risk.

U.S. Treasury blood-sucking effect: The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield continues to exceed 5%, potentially attracting funds out of risk assets, leading to a decline in ETH. Short position holders need to patiently wait for opportunities to test lower support (e.g., 3050).

Remember: Survival is the top priority; rational decision-making is key to weathering volatility.#爆仓反杀 #解套

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