In just 72 hours, Bitcoin experienced a roller coaster ride from hell to heaven. On June 19, following news of Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, Bitcoin plummeted from a high of $130,000 to $98,200, with liquidation volumes hitting a new high since the LUNA collapse in 2022; subsequently, as Israel and Iran reached a lightning ceasefire, Bitcoin violently surged to $106,000, causing over $1.2 billion in short positions to be liquidated. Behind this 'perfect storm' is a quadruple resonance of geopolitical factors, macroeconomic conditions, regulatory games, and market structure.
1. Geopolitical Risks: From 'War Premium' to 'Peace Discount'
On June 19, as Israeli missiles tore through the night sky of the Middle East, cryptocurrencies were the first risk assets to react. Bitcoin plummeted 20% within 30 minutes, and Ethereum briefly fell below $3,000. On-chain data showed that over 47,000 Bitcoins were urgently transferred out of exchange wallets that day, marking the highest daily outflow since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March 2024. This panic is not coincidental – when Iran's nuclear facilities were attacked in 2024, Bitcoin surged 15% in a single day, establishing a reflex in the market: 'Middle East conflict → Bitcoin as a safe haven.'
However, the plot took a sudden turn: Iran announced it would accept UAE mediation within 48 hours, and Bitcoin quickly recovered all its losses. Data from Glassnode showed that after the ceasefire news was released, the risk premium for Bitcoin in the derivatives market (calculated through the spread between three-month futures and spot prices) plummeted from an annualized 32% to 8%, equivalent to an instant evaporation of $4 billion in 'war taxes.'
2. Weak Dollar: The 'Digital Gold' Narrative Under Expectations of Rate Cuts
Amid geopolitical uncertainties, the US dollar index quietly fell below the 100 mark, reaching a new low since November 2022. Federal Reserve interest rate futures show that the probability of a rate cut in September has risen to 78%, up from just 45% before the release of the June CPI data.
This shift constitutes a double stimulus for the crypto space: on one hand, the weakening dollar directly boosts the Bitcoin/USD exchange rate; on the other hand, the decline in real interest rates reduces the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin, a zero-yield asset. JPMorgan's latest report indicates that its constructed 'Bitcoin-real interest rate sensitivity model' shows that each 10 basis points drop in real interest rates corresponds to an approximate 3.2% theoretical increase in Bitcoin.
3. Regulatory Fog: The 'Double-Edged Sword' of the Stablecoin Bill
Just as the market was in a frenzy, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee suddenly accelerated its review of the (GENIUS stablecoin bill), with key provisions including:
- Stablecoins with a market cap exceeding $10 billion must hold US Treasury reserves 1:1;
- Daily withdrawal limits at exchanges set at $50,000/user.
Upon the news, USDC's market cap evaporated by $800 million in a single day, with some users turning to USDT and decentralized stablecoin DAI. Dramatically, the White House then revealed that Paul Atkins, the SEC chair nominated by Trump, might give the green light to the bill during hearings – this regulator, who once called Bitcoin 'the greatest invention of the 21st century,' could bring about a more lenient regulatory environment than during Gensler's era.
4. Leverage Liquidations: A Pre-planned 'Hunting Game'?
On-chain analyst Willy Woo noted that before the crash on June 19, the funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts had been above an annualized 50% for seven consecutive days, indicating excessive bullish sentiment in the market. Following the news of the Iranian attack, Binance alone liquidated long positions worth $980 million, with the largest single liquidation reaching $48 million.
Strangely, as Bitcoin rebounded to $106,000, the Coinbase Premium Gap (the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase and Binance) suddenly surged to +$1,200, suggesting that U.S. institutions were buying the dip. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju bluntly stated: 'This is not panic selling, but a precise hunt targeting highly leveraged players.'
5. Underlying Technical Currents: The Halving Effect and Layer 2's 'Capital Absorption Black Hole'
Despite the market's extreme volatility, Bitcoin's on-chain data reveals long-term positives:
- Miner positions have dropped to a three-year low, indicating reduced selling pressure post-halving;
- Lightning Network capacity has surpassed 6,500 BTC, reaching a new historical high;
- The total locked value (TVL) in Ethereum Layer 2 has reached $47 billion, with a 7-day increase of 12%, as some funds flow from the Bitcoin ecosystem to scaling solutions like Arbitrum and Optimism.
This phenomenon of 'capital diversion' is changing the market structure. On July 10, an anonymous whale address exchanged 10,000 Bitcoins for stETH and then cross-chained to the Base network, sparking discussions on whether Bitcoin would be siphoned into the Ethereum ecosystem.
Conclusion: After the storm, who is swimming naked?
When Bitcoin reclaims $100,000, this crisis feels more like a stress test:
- Geopolitical conflicts prove that Bitcoin remains 'digital gold,' but its volatility far exceeds that of traditional safe-haven assets;
- The weakening dollar and expectations of interest rate cuts provide mid-term support, but the September FOMC meeting may trigger another major shock;
- Regulatory uncertainty hangs like the sword of Damocles, ready to cut the rebound at any moment;
- The dual game of leverage and technology makes every rise fraught with hidden dangers.
As Kyle Samani, co-founder of Multicoin Capital, stated: 'We are at a singular point where 'macro event-driven' meets 'technology cycle iteration,' and the crypto investment paradigm of the past four years may become entirely obsolete.' In this unscripted drama, the only certainty is that greater volatility is on the way.
