BTC Today's Contract Strategy:
Last night's CPI data had little impact, but Bitcoin ETF saw its first net outflow in nearly a month; this signal should be heeded! Institutions are now dominating the market, and the flow of ETF funds serves as a barometer:
Continuous net inflow → Trend continues to look bullish
Continuous net outflow → Be cautious and consider a bearish turn
Macro risks: Trump's tariff policy may bring additional volatility, and the market can easily be swayed by his words.
Key technical levels:
Support levels: 115000 (light position to try long), 111800 (normal position)
Resistance levels: 118700, 120000 (suitable for phased shorting)
Three reasons for bearishness:
1. Liquidity distribution shows that support is accumulating below, while funds are concentrating around 130,000 above, which may signal a reversal
2. The main upward wave may have completed; if there is a rebound followed by a drop, it could form an M-top or head and shoulders top, and a confirmed drop would be more severe
3. Market sentiment: the long-short ratio is still <1, but the number of longs is increasing—when retail investors cluster to go long, reversals often occur
Personal opinion: A small rebound may occur in the short term, but I lean towards bearishness. The longer the oscillation lasts, the greater the chance of a decline.
Last month when the long-short ratio was 0.4, I went against the trend and shorted, suffering significant losses; now with retail investors' enthusiasm for longs increasing, caution is warranted!
