When the technical 'starting line' meets the fundamental 'accelerator', this breakout for SOL may be more powerful than you think!
Recently, the crypto community has been focused on SOL, not because it has listed on another exchange, but because both technical and fundamental aspects are performing a "synchronized dive"—either they will both explode, or they will both crash. First, regarding the technicals: the 4-hour candlestick chart has formed a classic combination of "V-shaped rebound + symmetrical triangle", resembling a deep breath before a big move. The key support is at $163.78 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level); if it holds, the next step is to challenge the strong resistance area of $169-170—this position is not only the high on July 14 but also the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. If it breaks through, we’ll be looking at $175, and it may even replicate the 30% surge seen after the Ethereum ETF approval.
But the technicals are just the appetizer; what really has bulls salivating is the countdown to SOL ETF approval. Bloomberg rates the approval probability at 90, with the fund size potentially reaching $2-5 billion, while Canada has already jumped the gun to launch a SOL spot ETF, signaling a clear trend toward global regulatory alignment. A real case in point: a friend from an institution revealed that they recently adjusted their holdings using BOSS Wallet, purchasing 17,674 SOL in a single transaction (valued at about $3.83 million at $217), which is not something retail investors can play with. Even more exciting is that ProShares just launched a 2x leveraged ETF for SOL/XRP; once leveraged funds enter, volatility doubles, creating a love-hate situation for short-term traders.
Speaking of ecology, Solana has been performing exceptionally well recently: mobile marketing giants like Aurora are starting to assess investments, drawn by its combination of "high performance + low transaction fees"; on-chain RWA (real world assets) has surpassed $1.2 billion, with DeFi, NFTs, and the Meme economy advancing together. A friend of mine who works in NFTs complained: "In the past, launching a project on Ethereum required fees that could cover a Michelin meal, now on Solana, it’s enough for a cup of coffee."
In terms of operations, proceed in three steps:
Passive holders: If the average price is above $165, add 10% near $163 to bring the cost to around $164, set a stop-loss below $160, and if it drops below, cut the position; don’t bet against the trend.
Short-term traders: Play 'buy low, sell high' in the $163-170 range, hold after breaking $170 until $175; for those wanting leverage, use 2x long positions, set a stop-loss at $162, target $170, but remember—false breakouts are more common than true ones, don’t get fooled by a single big green candle.
For short position holders: $169 is the last line of defense, if it repeatedly fails to break, you can short to $165, but if ETF news comes in, it may lead to a short squeeze, don’t be greedy.
However, there are two variables that must be watched closely:
Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on July 31: a 25 basis point rate cut could lead to a collective surge in crypto assets; if there is no rate cut, the strengthening US dollar may pressure SOL.
UK FCA's new stablecoin regulations: after implementation in late July, compliant stablecoins may divert funds, and the "decoupling risk" of SOL from USDC and USDT needs to be monitored.
In conclusion, the truth is: this wave of SOL’s price action is essentially a dual impact of "institutional funds + ecological explosion", with technicals merely serving as a trigger. If the ETF gets approved alongside a rate cut, the previous high of $180-187 may just be the starting point. But don’t forget, the crypto market has always been about "buying the expectation and selling the news", a true approval could actually lead to a short-term pullback—will you choose to position early or chase high after the breakout? Share your strategy in the comments; if we get over 500 likes, I’ll break down SOL's "false breakout identification techniques" in the next issue! Follow us for real-time strategies every day!