Bitcoin pulls back after hitting a new high, but is it not peaking yet?
Bitcoin ($BTC) broke through $120,000 to reach a new high and has shown a short-term pullback trend, but renowned DeFi researcher Ignas does not believe the price has peaked.
Ignas pointed out on July 14 that although Bitcoin has reached a new high, there are currently no obvious signs of FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) in the market or common topping signals.
As of July 14, the net asset value premium for short-term holders of Bitcoin was 16% when Bitcoin reached its new high, indicating moderate market interest, far below FOMO levels.
Ignas noted that mainstream media coverage of Bitcoin's rise has not been abundant, and the Coinbase app's ranking in the App Store has not yet reached number one. Moreover, there has been no relevant information from friends outside the crypto circle, all of which are considered potential topping signals.
On the other hand, Ethereum is still 37% away from its historical high, and the U.S. Federal Reserve has not yet entered a full rate-cutting cycle. Traditional financial institutions' cryptocurrency reserve investment strategies have just begun to accumulate, with no obvious signs of collapse.
Further Reading:
Billionaires: The Monster-Level Clone Season is Coming! Key Positive Factors Boosting Ethereum to $10,000
Ignas: Topping signals indicate the Bitcoin market is not overheated yet
Ignas also mentioned that data from the cryptocurrency investment research firm Delphi shows that the current Bitcoin topping signal index is 62. This index is a weighted composite of on-chain, technical, sentiment, and macroeconomic data, and typically only shows topping conditions when it exceeds 75.
Source: Ignas Ignas: Bitcoin topping signals indicate the market is not overheated yet
From the CryptoQuant Bitcoin bull and bear market cycle indicators shown in the image below, it can also be seen that Bitcoin is still firmly in the bull market area (orange) and has not yet entered the overheated bull market area (red).
Source: Ignas Ignas: Bitcoin topping signals indicate the market is not overheated yet
Bitcoin ETF fund inflows are strong, foreign media claim it could reach $138,000
(Cointelegraph) Analytical reports indicate that, based on weekly trends, Bitcoin and historical market cycles suggest there may still be an opportunity to rise to the $138,000 target price in the short term.
Additionally, last Thursday, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF recorded the second-largest single-day fund inflow in history, reaching $1.18 billion. This situation typically lasts for several days or even a week, providing a solid foundation for prices.
Historically, every time Bitcoin breaks through the previous historical high, a parabolic rise occurs.
After breaking through the 2017 high of $20,000 at the end of 2020, it ultimately rose 167% to about $69,000; after breaking $69,000 at the end of 2024, it rose 49%.
(Cointelegraph) predicts that according to the diminishing returns model, Bitcoin is expected to rise an additional 10% to 15% after this breakout, with a short-term target price between $132,000 and $138,000, expected to be reached within one to two weeks.
Ignas also stated that Bitcoin's volatility and funding rate data are performing well. Bitcoin remains in a strong state, and investors are advised to buckle up and enjoy the ride.
Further Reading:
Getting ready to sell? An old giant whale transferred $2 billion worth of Bitcoin to exchanges, BTC dropped to $116,000
Will Bitcoin rise again? Analysts: Before reaching $130,000, pay attention to support at 'this price level', don't get stuck!
'Bitcoin pulls back after hitting $120,000! Is the bull market peaking? Researchers reveal 2 key signals: buckle up!' This article was first published in 'Crypto City'
