Historical Patterns Reveal: Why Does This Bitcoin Signal Always Ignite the Market?

The supply ratio of long-term to short-term holders has recently turned negative, a market signal that has appeared once again. From past experience, this shift in indicator is often a precursor to trend changes - it may accelerate the existing trend or become the starting point for its end.

Looking back at four key historical nodes (1 to 4), the subsequent trends show significant differences. The core of this difference lies in whether the market demand can absorb the additional supply when long-term holders shift from accumulation to reduction. If demand is sufficient, the market is likely to continue improving; if demand is insufficient, prices may fall.

Macroeconomic events often amplify the impact of this signal. For example, after node 2, the Federal Reserve initiated interest rate hikes, node 3 was closely followed by the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs, and node 4 coincided with the U.S. presidential election. These events have all become important catalysts for driving the market.

Now, with node 5 showing a negative supply ratio of long-term to short-term holders, what key events impacting the market will follow? This suspense is waiting for the market to provide an answer.