Prepared a $BTC red envelope for my brothers 🧧
#CPI data is coming
The U.S. June CPI report is here, with several key points:
1. Overall inflation meets expectations: The U.S. June seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month recorded 0.3%, meeting expectations, marking the largest single-month increase since January. This brings the U.S. June unadjusted CPI year-on-year to 2.7%, a slight increase from May's 2.4%. Rising food and energy prices are one of the reasons for the accelerated increase.
2. Core inflation lower than expected: Excluding food and energy, the U.S. June seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month, rounded, recorded an increase of 0.2%, remaining below the median expectation for the fifth consecutive month. The year-on-year core CPI increased by 2.9%, meeting expectations and showing a slight rise from the previous three months' 2.8% increase.
3. Overview of major components: Core inflation is constrained by falling prices of new and used cars, as well as decreases in airfare and accommodation costs. Compared to high inflation years, housing prices are also relatively mild, with housing-related prices rising by 0.2% month-on-month. The impact of tariff increases is evident in several categories: household furniture prices rose by 1%, the largest increase since January 2022; prices of video and audio products rose by 1.1%, the largest increase since February last year; toy prices increased by 1.8% month-on-month, the largest increase since April 2021.
4. Interest rate cut pricing remains unchanged: As higher tariff rates may take effect from August, economists suggest that the June inflation report is unlikely to prompt the Federal Reserve to cut rates early. Futures still indicate a higher likelihood of the Federal Reserve restarting rate cuts in September.
So, do you think there will be a rate cut in September?
