#CPI数据来袭
The US June CPI report is out, highlighting several key points:
1. Overall inflation meets expectations: The seasonally adjusted CPI for June recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, in line with expectations, marking the largest single-month increase since January. This brings the unadjusted year-on-year CPI for June to 2.7%, up from 2.4% in May. Rising food and energy prices are among the reasons for the acceleration in growth.
2. Core inflation below expectations: Excluding food and energy, the seasonally adjusted core CPI for June recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, rounding down for the fifth consecutive month below the median expectation. The year-on-year core CPI rose by 2.9%, meeting expectations, and slightly up from the 2.8% increase in the previous three months.
3. Overview of major components: Core inflation is constrained by falling prices of new and used cars, as well as decreases in airfare and accommodation costs. Compared to years of high inflation, housing prices are relatively mild, with housing-related prices increasing by 0.2% in a single month. The impact of tariff increases is evident in several categories: household furniture prices rose by 1%, the largest increase since January 2022; prices for video and audio products increased by 1.1%, the largest increase since February of last year; toy prices increased by 1.8% in a single month, the largest increase since April 2021.
4. Interest rate cut pricing remains unchanged: Economists indicate that the June inflation report is unlikely to prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates ahead of schedule, as higher tariff rates are expected to take effect starting in August. Futures markets still indicate a greater likelihood of the Federal Reserve restarting interest rate cuts in September.
So, do you think there will be an interest rate cut in September?
