Overall picture based on the data :
- Prices of physical goods (like electronics, cars, manufactured products) are slowly rising again after a period of deflation or stagnation.
-> Suggests demand is stabilizing or recovering, or supply chain pressures are subtly returning. Early signs of reflation.
- Services (like healthcare, hospitality, education) and housing prices are either growing slowly or declining
-> These categories make up a larger weight in CPI/PCE, so their disinflation keeps headline inflation low/stable.
My view :
1. Inflation is not high enough to scare central banks. But underlying growth (via goods reflation) is picking up.
2. No need for rate hikes, but growth-friendly environment is emerging.
3. We're at the "Goldilock zone" which means A reflation undercurrent supports growth assets, while headline inflation is tame, keeping central banks on hold. This favors a portfolio tilted toward growth, risk, and cyclicality — like tech, crypto, and commodities.
Best action : Long everything at the next dip related to tech and crypto!