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Today affirmed what was already clear: the beginning of the end for Russia.
A burned-out leader of a country that is cannibalizing its own economy to fuel the war machine, saw two allies collapse, and is facing empty coffers. The game with the Americans was successful for six months - but the painful correction dashes any hope that Russia can still win this war. Putin rejected President Trump's earlier liberal proposals and now faces a Ukraine armed to the teeth, the burgeoning European arms industry, and internal decay.
What awaits Russia is worse than the end of the USSR. It is more comparable to the utter chaos of 1917, which plunged the country into a civil war that lasted for years. China is also not expected to fill the gaps - the price will likely be too high. And Ukraine is no longer fighting the legacy of the USSR—that massive stockpile of weapons is now all but depleted. An arsenal built up over 40 years has been destroyed in 40 months of war. The question remains: what will the downfall of Putin and Russia look like?
The analogy with 1944 of World War II: the end of the Axis powers was clear to everyone, and unconditional surrender was demanded of Germany and Japan. But a year and a half of bloody fighting and record numbers of fallen soldiers and civilians still followed. This doesnt have to be repeated, but the point is that dictators rarely give up and are more likely to fight to the bitter end. And the question remains: to what extent will the Russians remain willing to continue to follow and support Putin in his impending defeat?
The question is no longer whether Russia will collapse, but how.
A burned-out leader of a country that is cannibalizing its own economy to fuel the war machine, saw two allies collapse, and is facing empty coffers. The game with the Americans was successful for six months - but the painful correction dashes any hope that Russia can still win this war. Putin rejected President Trump's earlier liberal proposals and now faces a Ukraine armed to the teeth, the burgeoning European arms industry, and internal decay.
What awaits Russia is worse than the end of the USSR. It is more comparable to the utter chaos of 1917, which plunged the country into a civil war that lasted for years. China is also not expected to fill the gaps - the price will likely be too high. And Ukraine is no longer fighting the legacy of the USSR—that massive stockpile of weapons is now all but depleted. An arsenal built up over 40 years has been destroyed in 40 months of war. The question remains: what will the downfall of Putin and Russia look like?
The analogy with 1944 of World War II: the end of the Axis powers was clear to everyone, and unconditional surrender was demanded of Germany and Japan. But a year and a half of bloody fighting and record numbers of fallen soldiers and civilians still followed. This doesnt have to be repeated, but the point is that dictators rarely give up and are more likely to fight to the bitter end. And the question remains: to what extent will the Russians remain willing to continue to follow and support Putin in his impending defeat?
The question is no longer whether Russia will collapse, but how.
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