In a live stream lasting over an hour, technical analyst Kev Capital TA (Kevin) presented the strongest bullish argument for Dogecoin since the bottom in April. Before a large audience across multiple platforms, Kevin asserted that the market is at 'the edge of a real altcoin season,' with a clear double-bottom pattern on Dogecoin's large time frame chart – a signal he calls 'the opportunity for a massive breakout' if resistance zones are broken.

Macro Perspective: Inflation Is No Longer an Issue

To begin, Kevin places Dogecoin in the broader macro context of the market. He points out that recent inflation data – including the CPI and PPI indexes – combined with continuous statements from the Federal Reserve (Fed), could cause market fluctuations, but the trend has been 'set by structural forces.'

He emphasizes that the Trueflation index – a community-contributed measure of inflation – is currently at 1.71%, 60–70 basis points lower than the official figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 'Under 2% is good. That means inflation is no longer the main story,' Kevin said.

USDT Dominance – Green Light for Altcoin

One of the key indicators that Kevin uses is USDT Dominance – meaning the market capitalization ratio of Tether. He stated that this index has just broken the bear-flag pattern and is currently touching the Fibonacci support area of 0.786 around the level of 4.14%.

"When money flow turns red heavily on USDT-D, that's a green signal for altcoins," Kevin explained. Although a hot CPI index could create a short-term bounce for USDT-D, he still believes that 'the lowest resistance line is down' – and that will correlate closely with the price rise of DOGE.

DOGE Chart: Strong Double Bottom, Volume Supports

Kevin's main argument is that a clear double-bottom pattern appears on Dogecoin's weekly chart – right at the Fibonacci retracement level of 0.382 from the upward trend of 2024–2025 and sits just above the long-term multi-year resistance line.

"If you flip the chart, it looks exactly like an ideal double-top pattern – and you would be scared. But if you flip it back the right way, then it's a gift," Kevin said. He also pointed out that the trading volume confirms this pattern: the sellers ran out during the second drop, while the RSI indicator formed a higher low – a sign that buyers are gradually taking control.

Altcoin Overview: TOTAL3, TOTAL2 And Cycle Signals

Not only DOGE, Kevin also closely follows market indicators for altcoins such as TOTAL3 (total market cap excluding BTC and ETH) – which is hitting the 'yellow' resistance area that previously halted upward movements throughout the spring. He believes this ceiling is about to be broken.

Meanwhile, TOTAL2 (excluding BTC) is about to form a golden cross – the fourth time in the current cycle. The previous three times, the market had a short correction of 9–19% after this signal appeared, but then established new peaks. Kevin notes that 'the golden cross is a lagging signal, so manage your risk – take partial profits – but the trend is still upwards after the 'dust settles.'

DOGE – Resistance Levels and Long-Term Targets

For Dogecoin, Kevin identifies three important milestones on the breakout roadmap:

  • The nearest peak at $0.21

  • The pivot level for 2024 at $0.48

  • The historic peak of 2021 at$0.74

Furthermore, he also mentioned Fibonacci extension levels at $1.32 and $2.00, but also recommended not to get too carried away in projections. 'We analyze the present; let the chart find its way to the next level,' he said.

DOGE Doesn't Need Elon – Liquidity is the Key

While many question the possibility of Dogecoin being integrated into Elon Musk's ecosystems like X (Twitter) or Tesla, Kevin firmly stated: 'Dogecoin doesn't need Elon.' He emphasized that the tenfold increase from the June 2024 bottom to now occurred entirely without any support from Musk – and if there was, it was merely a 'catalyst,' not a 'trigger.'

Instead, the key factor is overall system liquidity, especially the direction of the Fed's balance sheet. 'When the QT (quantitative tightening) program ends, BTC Dominance peaks – and that's when you have a real altcoin season,' Kevin concluded, also pointing out the perfect inverse correlation between QT and altcoin boom cycles in history.

Breakout Scenario: BTC $120K + USDT-D Decrease

Concluding the analysis session, Kevin presented a scenario that could trigger the next bullish cycle: Bitcoin closing the week above the Fibonacci 1.886 level at $120,000, while USDT Dominance drops sharply. When these two factors occur simultaneously, he believes that the double-bottom pattern of DOGE will become a strong trend reversal – bringing the price back to the peak levels of the 2021 frenzy.

"You haven't seen anything yet," Kevin said. "Stay calm, keep discipline, and let the chart guide you."