#CPIWatch Here’s the latest “CPIWatch” update—nowcasts of U.S. CPI and core CPI from the Cleveland Fed (as of July 14, 2025): 
Measure Month-over-month Year-over-year
CPI (headline) +0.16% 2.70%
Core CPI (ex-food/energy) +0.24% 3.05%
These are Cleveland Fed’s real-time estimates—updated daily using their nowcast model, which combines monthly CPI/PCE figures and high-frequency data like oil and gasoline prices .
🔍 What Is CPIWatch & Why It Matters
1. Nowcasting vs. Forecasting
Cleveland Fed’s “CPIWatch” isn’t a prediction—it’s a nowcast, an estimate of where CPI currently stands before official BLS release .
2. Daily Revisions
Headline CPI nowcasts move frequently due to volatile energy prices. Core CPI moves more gradually, since it relies on the stable CPI trend .
3. Accuracy
Historically, this nowcasting model beats common benchmark models—including the Blue Chip consensus, Philadelphia Fed SPF, and statistical alternatives—especially for headline inflation .
📅 Why It Matters Now
• The next official CPI release for June 2025 is scheduled July 15, 2025 at 8:30 AM ET .
• These nowcasts help anticipate whether inflation is trending higher or lower pre-release.
• At the moment, headline CPI is estimated at 2.70% y/y and monthly growth is mild (+0.16%), suggesting inflation may be stabilizing.
🧭 Bottom Line
• CPIWatch offers a real-time snapshot of inflation before official data — valuable for markets and policy.
• Current estimate (July 14): headline CPI up 2.7% y/y, core CPI up 3.05% y/y.
• Expect official figures later today (July 15), which will validate or adjust these nowcasts.
✅ What You Can Do
• Compare CPIWatch nowcast vs. official release later today.
• Combine with Cleveland Fed’s median CPI, inflation expectations, and PCE nowcasts for a full picture (available on their Indicators & Data page) .
• Track how energy price swings push headline CPI up or down.
Let me know if you’d like a deeper dive into core vs. headline trends, methodology, or historical errors!