I am a tycoon, a veteran of three bull and bear markets. Right now, global capital is all crouching at the starting line of 8:30 — tonight's CPI data is the true opening bell for BTC! Below, I will break down the key battleground in layman's terms:

News Front: Two variables determine the dream of a rate cut in September.

Ultimate Timeline:

Exact Timing: U.S. June CPI will be released at 20:30 Beijing time tonight.

Real Game Focus: Is inflation accelerated by the transmission of 'escalating global trade frictions + energy price fluctuations'?

Federal Reserve’s Hidden Cards Revealed:

Latest official remarks changed to 'the inflation path is still unstable'.

Market Bets on the Truth: If the core CPI year-on-year ≤ 3.1%, the probability of a rate cut in September will soar to 82%.

Technical Aspects: Volume deadlock at the edge of a cliff.

1 Hour K-Line Signal Update:

Bull-Bear Lifeline: 114,200 becomes the new defense line, the lower Bollinger Band has moved down to 113,800.

Volume Anomaly: During the Asian trading session, volume suddenly shrank to 200 BTC/hour, the lowest for the month — the calm before the storm!

MACD Divergence Hidden Fire: Price hits a new low but green bars shorten (-189→-142), showing a decline in bearish momentum.

Key Pattern Interpretation:

Triangle Convergence Endpoint: The 4-hour chart forms a range of 113,800-115,500, a directional breakout is necessary after 20:30.

Core Deduction: Three scenarios for response.

History Repeats: On the same day last year, during CPI night, BTC fluctuated ±4% within 90 seconds of the data release, but returned to the original price within 30 minutes — the liquidity trap is the lethal move!

Rational Response Guide:

Scenario 1 (CPI≤3.1%): Observe whether it can stabilize at 116,000 for 30 minutes (a breakthrough would confirm a trend reversal).

Scenario 2 (CPI≥3.4%): Beware of false breakouts, if 113,000 shows a large order of 10,000, it may alleviate panic.

Scenario 3 (3.1%<data<3.4%): Continuation of fluctuations, focus on whether the ETH/BTC exchange rate can break through 0.054.

Survival Rules: Two Iron Laws of Veterans

Momentarily halt leverage upon data release — the lesson from the 320 million liquidation during the 2023 CPI night is still fresh!

Wait for the first 15-minute K-Line entity: Avoid the 'pin needle slaughterhouse', the real direction is only now emerging.

I am a tycoon, only conveying the tempered truth. Click to follow the tycoon teaching you — using whale wallet data to tell you who is manipulating the game! $BTC #CPI数据来袭 #比特币巨鲸动向 #BTC再创新高

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