Trump fires seven shots in 24 hours, each shaking the market, Bitcoin stands at a crossroads of bulls and bears!
Bearish factors:
Geopolitical powder keg escalation: Provoking Ukraine's strikes on Russian territory + 100% tariff threat, pushing the Russia-Ukraine conflict into an unpredictable abyss. Extreme risk-averse sentiment may trigger a global market risk-off, leading to instant liquidity depletion, making it hard for BTC to stand alone (refer to the initial crash at the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022). Key point: Is it real warfare or just bluster? The former is a big weapon, the latter a false alarm.
Trade war 2.0 heating up: 100% tariffs on Russia + 17% tariffs on Mexican tomatoes. The global supply chain faces further blows, inflation expectations reignite, making it harder for the Federal Reserve to cut rates and potentially turning hawkish (Powell has already been criticized by Trump), suppressing risk assets, including Bitcoin. Liquidity is the lifeline for altcoins, also affecting BTC momentum.
Bullish factors:
$70 billion AI/energy gamble: National-level massive investments clarify direction. Directly stimulates related tracks: decentralized computing ($RNDR ), AI agents ($FET ) and other tokens surge, boosting overall crypto market sentiment and capital inflow, with BTC benefiting as the leader. Expectation of technological integration: Blockchain is a candidate for trustworthy cooperation between AI and energy networks, with policy backing enhancing industry ceilings.
"1% interest rate" dream puts pressure: Trump continues to bombard Powell, demanding aggressive interest rate cuts. Although the Federal Reserve may not comply, the sustained political pressure has strengthened the market's strong expectations for future rate cuts. Liquidity easing (cheap money) is the foundational fuel for cryptocurrencies, especially BTC bull markets.
The 'safe-haven' property of geopolitical risks: If the conflict escalates in a controllable way, some funds may view BTC as a safe-haven option outside traditional systems, forming a support.
The side effects of 'America First': Heightened trade friction may increase the actual demand and value reassessment of cryptocurrencies as alternative cross-border payment/settlement tools (e.g., the use of USDT in sanctioned areas).
Tang Seng's summary:
Short-term (1-2 weeks): Directly influenced by the Russia-Ukraine situation (100% tariff countdown) and the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rate cuts, volatility is bound to soar, beware of sudden drops triggered by black swans. However, opportunities brew amidst panic.
Mid-term (1-3 months): $70 billion policy dividend and interest rate cut expectations are stronger dominant forces! The AI/energy chain boom spilling over + liquidity improvement expectations are likely to push BTC to oscillate upwards. The trade war inflation is a 'double-edged sword' for BTC, but in the long run, it is more favorable for its anti-inflation narrative.
Key monitoring indicators: Substantial actions in Russia-Ukraine, speeches from Federal Reserve officials (interest rate expectations), trends of leading AI tokens, whether BTC can hold key support (such as 60,000).
Trump's $70 billion ignites the AI fuse, interest rate cut expectations add fuel to the fire, Bitcoin's 'narrative bull' overwhelms the geopolitical 'panic bear'! A pullback is a good opportunity, pay attention to Tang Seng, guiding you to accurately seize policy dividends and black swans!#特朗普概念币 $BTC
