$ETH Evening Thoughts:
Why is the second contract so hard? The large contract has dropped by 6000 dollars, but the second contract has only dropped by a little over 100 dollars. This doesn't seem to align with the second contract's typical behavior! Hopefully, the second contract won't experience a catch-up drop; if it's going to drop, it should do so now. If the second contract really does catch up on the drop, it won't just be this small amount.
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Speaking with charts: In the hourly chart of the second contract, this yellow line represents the strongest support level for the second contract at the moment. This line has been tested downwards 5 times without being broken. Once this line is broken, the bullish candle indicated by the left yellow arrow will be instantly engulfed, and it will search for support at the lower level of 2826. Therefore, this yellow line is very important for the second contract and serves as the boundary between bullish and bearish trends. If this yellow line is broken, the second contract will switch from a bullish to a bearish trend.
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For the second contract, if it breaks through 2984 with volume, go long on the right side. If it drops below 2969 with volume, go short on the right side. Pay attention to changes in trading volume and set stop losses appropriately. The second contract should stabilize above 2988 in the hourly timeframe to look upwards at 3023-3083. If it cannot rise above 3023, the second contract will not be able to sustain an upward trend.
In the 4-hour timeframe, if it drops below 2937, look down towards 2900-2841.
Continuing with the chart: All high and low points in the hourly timeframe of the second contract are decreasing. Until it breaks the neck line marked in the chart, going long can only be short-term; take a quick profit and exit. After breaking the neck line, if it retests and gets support at the neck line, then going long can look upwards towards the previous high of 3083. There will also be CPI data released tonight at 8:30, so be cautious of short-term volatility and set stop losses to prevent sharp drops from bringing you back home. Meeting adjourned.
