I mentioned last weekend: this pullback came as expected!
But don’t panic; this drop is likely just the market pricing in tonight's CPI data in advance.
Many people are worried that bad data will continue to crash the market; in fact, I'm more worried if the data is 'too good'. Because you must know, since Trump took office, every time the CPI is released, it has 'magically' exceeded expectations, and he himself is extremely concerned about this report. So is it coincidence or manipulation? You decide.
Market expectations are that CPI will remain elevated—so the Fed not lowering interest rates in July has basically become a certainty, and now there's only a 58% chance of a rate cut in September.
⏰ Tonight at 8:30, the data will be revealed. If the CPI performs mildly, or even slightly below expectations, Bitcoin might rebound directly; if it exceeds expectations, it will be a test for the bulls.
Is Bitcoin's pullback just a fake drop? Institutions have long had a script for bulk buying.
This round of BTC's rise is entirely driven by institutional buying; big Wall Street players like Fidelity and BlackRock are increasing their positions daily, and ETF net inflows have never stopped. As long as they keep buying, this market won't cool down.
But don't forget, the Fed hasn't loosened the money supply, and liquidity remains tight. After prices are pushed up, the pressure will fall on retail investors. Technically, short-term support is around $110,500, with an upward target still at 130,000.
This wave of ETH should not be underestimated.
Currently, it is still slightly adjusting around 3000; this wave hasn’t had a big pullback! On-chain data is also showing significant recovery, especially institutional actions:
🟢 BlackRock-led ETH ETF saw a net inflow of 900 million USD in a single week, setting a new historical high.
🟢 The listed company BitMine announced it holds over 500 million USD in ETH and is continuously buying.
The technicals are also very strong, with a weekly MACD golden cross, a clear bullish structure, and the next target directly pointing to the 3400-4000 range.
In the altcoin rotation, who is the real dragon?
In this volatile market, only the strong survive. $PENGU and $HAEDAL have managed to stand firm during this wave of altcoin pullback. Meanwhile, the new player #PUMP, which raised over 100 million USD in financing, only threw 4 million USD into the liquidity pool, yet the price still managed to stabilize above 5; it’s truly outrageous.
But in this market, one must understand human nature—the logic of smart money's game is hard for retail investors to win. On the night $PUMP opened, I personally saw a whale address with 80,000 BTC constantly transferring coins to exchanges, then started dumping; I did nothing and got caught... Watching smart money hedge, arbitrage, and reverse operations, we can only sigh—learn more, observe more, and don't rush to act.
Is XRP going to break through again?
#XRP is currently slowly approaching the critical resistance level of 2.80-3 USD; if it can break through strongly and hold, the historical high of 3.40 USD is not a dream.
Analysts are quite aggressive, with target prices directly calling for 3.84, 4.33, even 5 USD. But don’t forget, some minor pullbacks along the way are very normal; holding on is the key.
The market is now waiting for a catalyst, like the rumored ETF; once it lands, it could be the ignition point for XRP's takeoff. The $3 hurdle is crucial; once the daily closes above it, the space will open up.
Currently, XRP is slightly down, reported at $2.83, but the overall trend remains strong, keep an eye on the $3 mark.
#ADA's trading rhythm is really interesting.
Usually, it quickly crashes down at the slightest sign of trouble; when it drops, it drops fast and hard; but when the market takes off collectively, it often plays dead, making people's mentality completely collapse. When everyone is disappointed and cuts losses, it reverses and directly shoots up with a big bullish candle, soaring 30%, leaving you no time to chase.
This is actually a typical style of 'pressing and washing, concentrating and pulling'—first pretending to be weak to trick you into exiting, and then suddenly taking off once the chips have been collected. Historically, ADA has also performed scripts of doubling in a day and multiplying by ten in a month during bull markets.
Don't treat it as a stable project; it plays against expectations. Understanding this trading logic is key to holding onto its breakout.
The crypto space has added another bizarre play, and the excitement continues.
#LA has been online for a week, and the price has halved, but the foundation behind it has said 'might buy back', and the founder has a good background; the project belongs to the zero-knowledge protocol track, with Anan and CoinBase involved.
#C multiplied several times after opening, but those who chased in got stuck overnight; after researching $TAC, I decided not to buy, as the token information is too vague.
#AIN (AI + Anime) concept MEME coin surged nearly 20 million USD in market value, supposedly inspired by xAI's virtual character system, and Musk retweeted it to create momentum; would you dare to chase?
This market has already revealed everything: the strong get stronger, and the weak continue to lie flat. The real ones who break through rotations and attract capital are those coins that can outperform the market in every round.
