Stellar (XLM) has challenged the peak established in mid-January 2025 at the $0.515 mark. However, after a strong increase of 109.7% in just one week, the bulls of XLM have exhausted and are forced to retreat.
Nevertheless, along with the rest of the crypto market, Stellar still maintains a bullish tendency, as Bitcoin is in the phase of exploring new price levels and showing extremely strong buying power.
Ethereum (ETH), the leading altcoin in the market, is also predicted to continue its upward momentum. The structural divergence of this altcoin could bring the price back to its historical peak (ATH) before the end of this year.
The weekly chart of XLM shows a solid bullish structure. The first sign of a breakout in the upward direction (orange) appeared in May. A higher peak (green) at $0.334 was established at the end of that month, and a higher low (white) at $0.216 was established in June.
Trading activity in the past week has driven XLM to break strongly through the $0.334 mark, approaching the $0.515 level previously established in early 2025.
This is a clear signal indicating strong buying pressure; however, the price has been rejected, causing a drop of more than 11% at the time of writing. This could lead to deeper adjustments for XLM. So how deep could this adjustment go?
XLM price retracement prediction
Based on the recent price increase from $0.216 to $0.516, a range of Fibonacci retracement levels (white) can be identified on the chart. In larger time frames, the price structure of XLM still maintains a clear upward trend.
Even if the price adjusts down to $0.28, the bullish structure on the weekly chart remains intact. However, a scenario of dropping that low seems unlikely.
The area likely to become the next demand zone is the peak established in February at $0.364. This area also coincides with the 50% retracement level of the recent price increase. Therefore, traders may wait for the price to adjust to this area before buying.
Technical indicators on the daily timeframe have not yet shown signs of an immediate adjustment.
The A/D (accumulation/distribution) indicator has risen sharply and established a new peak, reflecting strong buying demand in recent days.
The CMF (Chaikin Money Flow) indicator also records very positive cash flow into the market, with values far exceeding the +0.05 mark.
The liquidation map shows that there are 'liquidity pockets' to the south (i.e., lower price areas). Long orders at risk of liquidation are within the range of $0.445 to $0.395. To the north, a cluster of liquidity has formed just above the $0.51 mark.
Traders need to manage risk carefully and understand that in the current market conditions, there will be little chance of a prolonged sideways consolidation.
Instead, liquidity will play a key role, and prices could quickly move towards nearby 'price magnet' areas without much sideways movement, as the level of speculation at this stage is extremely high.