SUI's recent breakthrough of the $3.65 resistance level is like a shot of adrenaline for the crypto market! But don't rush to chase the highs; let me break down the underlying logic of this market movement—"

I. Current market situation: Bulls are celebrating wildly, but beware of "rapid rises and sharp falls".

As of July 15, SUI's price stabilized at 3.88, with a weekly increase of 201.92%. More importantly, it just broke through the symmetrical triangle's resistance level of 3.65, technically confirming a short-term bullish trend, targeting 4.00. But don't let the rise cloud your judgment—RSI has reached 71.9, entering the overbought zone, and the stochastic indicator %K has soared to 91.88, indicating a potential short-term overheating. For example, last year when Ethereum broke $2000, similar signals occurred, followed by a 15% pullback. So, be cautious if you're chasing highs now, don't let your profitable trades turn into losses.

II. Why is SUI rising so rapidly? Three keywords: ecosystem, institutions, sentiment

  1. Ecosystem explosion is the core driving force
    SUI's DeFi sector has recently performed exceptionally: TVL increased by 480% to $1.8 billion,NAVI,Cetus, and other protocols have made significant contributions. Even more impressive,tBTC launched and directly brought in over $500 million in Bitcoin liquidity, effectively giving SUI a "cross-chain engine". In comparison to competitors like Optimism, SUI's stablecoin liquidity has reached $724 million, with a 24-hour increase of 24.56%, indicating that funds are voting with their feet.

  2. Institutional endorsement is an invisible driving force
    Grayscale's report directly pointed out SUI's "modular architecture + high scalability", leading to an 11% single-day price increase. More noteworthy is the NASDAQ's application for a spot ETF—although it hasn't been approved yet, historical data shows that during the period from application to approval, related assets have averaged a 300% increase.Institutional money hasn't fully entered the market, which might be SUI's biggest room for imagination in the future..

  3. Market sentiment: Short sellers are being pressed down
    In the past 90 days, the derivatives market has been completely dominated by buyers, with short liquidations reaching 1.27 million, double that of long positions. Once this "short squeeze" market starts, it will be hard to stop in the short term. However, there's a detail to note: on-chain "smart money" began to gradually reduce positions around 3.90, indicating that veteran players are locking in profits.When retail investors push prices up, institutions may quietly be selling off..

III. Short-term view of 5, long-term view of 100? Don't be deceived by numbers.

Analysts shouting "$100 in 2026" sounds exciting, but it needs to be unpacked:

  • 2025 Q3 target 5 (current price +284.00, the probability is indeed high. However, in early July, 44 million SUI will be unlocked (worth $122 million), which could trigger a pullback. Last year when Solana was unlocked, the price dropped by 20%. SUI needs to be cautious about this hurdle.

  • 2026 $100? Requires the ecosystem to be fully realized, such as daily active users exceeding 1 million and TVL breaking 100 billion. Currently, SUI's daily active users are only 100,000, making this target more like a "pie in the sky".

  • 2030 benchmark $8.5: Quite realistic. Referencing Ethereum's annualized growth of 15% over the past 5 years, SUI as a new public chain has a reasonable growth rate.

My view: In the short term, 5 is the consensus, but 100 requires the ecosystem to deliver on its promises. Those who jump in now are either betting on an ecosystem explosion or are taking over the positions of others.

IV. Operating Strategy: Don't be a fool, learn to "eat meat in batches"

  1. Breakout traders: Wait for SUI to stabilize at 4.00 before chasing long positions, target 5.0-5.36, but set a stop-loss at 3.70 (lower support level).

  2. Conservative players: Build positions in batches if it pulls back to the 3.80−3.75 range, as this is both a new pivot point and an institutional cost zone.

  3. Long-term holders: Anything below $5.0 is an accumulation window; focus on TVL growth rates and institutional dynamics. For example, if Grayscale continues to increase its holdings, that would be a strong signal.

To be blunt:

SUI's recent market movement is a triple resonance of technical, fundamental, and sentiment factors, but the crypto market has always been characterized by "rapid rises and even faster falls". You can believe in the ecosystem's potential, but don't believe in analysts' "hundred-dollar dreams"—unless you're prepared to endure a 50% pullback.

Let me ask everyone a question: Do you think SUI can reach 5? Or will it crash around 4.00? Let's discuss your positions and strategies in the comments.

Blindly going solo will never bring opportunities; why not follow the right strategies? I will guide you to explore tenfold potential coins! Top-tier resources!#套利交易策略 $SUI