#CPIWatch #CPIWatch

The June U.S. CPI report hit the market at 8:30 AM ET on July 15, with forecasts pointing to a 0.3% monthly increase—the largest uptick since January—and a 2.7% year‑over‑year rise in headline CPI, while core CPI (excluding food & energy) was expected to climb 0.3% MoM, lifting annual core inflation to around **3.0%** .

Economists and Fed-watchers are eyeing whether this tariff-driven boost to prices will prompt the Fed to delay interest rate cuts, with potential carry-through of higher gas, furniture, and recreational goods costs .

Meanwhile, the Cleveland Fed’s nowcasts for July show month‑over‑month CPI at +0.16%, core at +0.24%, with YoY readings around 2.7% and 3.05%, respectively, reinforcing the theme of inflation staying “sticky” .

Bottom line: Markets expected a mild yet notable rebound in inflation driven by tariffs, muffling hopes for imminent Fed rate cuts and fueling uncertainty as Treasury bill auctions and upcoming PPI data loom large.