🧨 PART 1: WHY ARE MAJOR COINS FALLING SHARPLY?
📉 1. Profit-taking pressure after a hot streak
• From late 2023 to mid-2025, BTC increased from around $16,000 to over $73,000, equivalent to nearly +400%.
• After peaking in March–April 2025, BTC and ETH entered an accumulation phase → many investors (especially hedge funds, whales) chose to sell to realize profits.
• The recent strong uptrend lacked deep correction waves → leading to a larger correction being inevitable.
💡 For example: Just like climbing a mountain too quickly without resting, one will have to rest longer afterward.
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📉 2. US economic data & interest rate policy
• Recently, US inflation (CPI) has not yet fallen to the target level of 2%, while the economy shows signs of slowing down, putting the Fed in a 'dilemma'.
• The Fed is forced to maintain higher interest rates for longer → money flow from investment funds will move away from risky assets like crypto → the market is being sold off.
💡 High interest rates make money 'expensive', people are more reluctant to speculate → coin prices are hard to rise sharply.
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📉 3. ETF money flow reverses
• In the first half of 2025, Bitcoin ETF and Ethereum ETF in the US attracted billions of USD → contributing to the price increase.
• However, in recent weeks:
• Many funds are moving to take profits (like BlackRock, Fidelity, Grayscale).
• Noticing consecutive net withdrawals, meaning people are pulling money out of ETFs → reflecting concerns about short-term prospects.
💡 ETFs are a measure for institutional investors – if they withdraw, retail investors panic.
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📉 4. FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) – Rumors & market sentiment
• Bad news or unverified rumors such as:
• SEC is investigating more crypto projects (especially DeFi).
• Some exchanges are suspected of weak liquidity.
• Governments tighten regulations on stablecoins.
• Although there has not yet been a truly 'crash' event, these FUDs spread quickly on social media, causing retail investors to sell off in a herd effect.
💡 In the crypto market, the 'fear' mentality always spreads faster than logic.
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🔍 PART 2: STRONG DECLINE OR JUST A CORRECTION?
✅ There are many reasons to believe that this is a natural correction, not a long-term downtrend (bear market):
1. Bitcoin has maintained its strategic support zone
• BTC, despite falling, has not yet broken the $54,000–$56,000 zone (strong technical support).
• ETH is also fluctuating around the $3,000 mark, which is a significant psychological threshold.
2. The market is still in a bullish cycle after Halving
• BTC just Halved in April 2024 → according to the 4-year cycle, the strongest growth phase usually occurs 12–18 months later → meaning late 2025 to early 2026.
• This indicates that: The uptrend has not yet ended, the current decline is just a 'rest to gather strength'.
3. No crash due to extremely bad news
• If this is a real Bear Market, there are usually significant events like:
• FTX bankruptcy (2022)
• LUNA/UST crash (2022)
• China banned mining (2021)
• Currently, there is no 'black swan' news like that → the possibility is that this is a correction to absorb supply and cool down FOMO.