Bitcoin Rush: The Carnival and Concerns Behind $120,000
The Bitcoin market is staging an epic rally - the price has broken through the $120,000 mark, setting a new record high. But behind this jubilation, the market has shown signs of overheating.
Market Status: Risks Hidden in the Frenzy
Price Performance: Hit a new high of $123,000 on July 15, up nearly 20% this year, with a total market value of $2.2 trillion (the fifth largest asset in the world)
Market Sentiment: Fear and Greed Index 72 (extreme greed), but more than 100,000 people were liquidated in 24 hours, with a loss of $510 million
Technical Signals: RSI reached 70.9 (overbought zone), and the 30-day unrealized profit and loss ratio reached the 80% percentile
Three major rising engines
Institutional entry
Spot Bitcoin ETF net inflow of $118 million in a single day (BlackRock holds more than 700,000 coins)
MicroStra Tegy's holdings value exceeds $50 billion
Trump Media Group and other listed companies join the "coin hoarding trend"
Regulatory support
The U.S. "Cryptocurrency Week" deliberates on three key bills
Hong Kong passes the "Stablecoin Ordinance" (effective on August 1)
The EU MiCA framework begins to be implemented
Macro support
The probability of the Fed's September rate cut is 72.3%
The weakening of the U.S. dollar + trade protection policies boost risk aversion demand
Bitcoin's positioning shifts from "speculative assets" to "digital gold"
Key technical signals
Breakthrough pattern: daily "three white soldiers" candle + ascending triangle breakthrough, target 128,000-132,000 U.S. dollars Yuan
Key position:
Support: $116,800 (near term), $112,000 (key)
Resistance: $121,500 (short term), $140,000 (long term)
Risk signal: H4 chart RSI reaches 77, MACD histogram shrinks
Future outlook
Short term: If the $112,000 support is maintained, it is expected to challenge $140,000
Risk: Falling below $108,500 may trigger a chain of liquidations
Cycle law: Referring to "peaking 550 days after halving", this round of bull market may peak in October
Breakout trading strategy (suitable for aggressive traders ）
Entry conditions:
Price stabilizes above $123,000 with increased trading volume (at least 1.5 times the 20-day average volume)
4-hour chart closes above the previous high for three consecutive positive lines
Targets:
First target $128,000 (1.618 Fibonacci extension level)
Second target $135,000 (psychological barrier + upper channel track)
Stop loss setting:
Day trading: Falling below the $120,000 round mark
Swing trading: Falling below the $116,800 support platform
Conclusion: Bitcoin is writing a new chapter in history, but investors need to be wary of "extreme joy leads to sorrow". Remember: when others are fearful, I am greedy, and when others are greedy, I am fearful - this old saying always applies to the crypto market.
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