Will tonight's CPI serve as a refueling point or a turning point for the crypto market?
At 20:30, the CPI data will verify whether inflation is derailed. The market expects the core CPI year-on-year rate to drop to 3.1%. If it actually falls below 3.0%, it will ignite the frenzy of expectations for a "Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September," and risk assets may experience a violent surge again. Conversely, if the data exceeds 3.3%, the crypto market, which is hovering at a high altitude, may face a precise strike from "liquidity tightening"—the current profit-taking position implied by the historical high of 123,000 has piled up like a mountain, and any negative news could trigger a panic sell-off.
The Federal Reserve's triple remarks conceal a turning point. If hawkish Bowman emphasizes "the fight against inflation is not yet complete" at 21:15, it may hedge against dovish data; the statements from Ball and Collins in the early hours of the next day will set the tone for the market's emotional conclusion. It is especially important to be alert: if the CPI is positive but officials signal "delayed interest rate cuts," it will create a meat grinder market where both bulls and bears are crushed, and volatility may break through the year's extreme values.
The derivatives market reveals the life-and-death defense line. Currently, the funding rate of mainstream perpetual contracts has reached a three-month peak, indicating that leveraged long positions are crowded. Before the data is released, it is recommended:
Bullish options protection: Buy out-of-the-money 5% call options to hedge upward risk
Whale movement monitoring: On-chain data shows that there is a continuous large amount of withdrawals above 120,000. If the exchange balance suddenly increases after a negative CPI, it indicates an escalation of selling pressure.
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