When history was rewritten on July 14, Bitcoin's price pierced the psychological barrier of $120,000 like a rocket, reaching a peak of $123,100. The total liquidation amount across the network hit $744 million, with 129,000 traders disappearing in this bulls vs. bears slaughter. This is not an ordinary market fluctuation, but a key turning point in the transition of cryptocurrency from a fringe asset to a global mainstream currency.

I. Institutional Hunting Moment: From MicroStrategy to BlackRock's Capital Carnival

  • Corporate Hoarding Army: MicroStrategy firmly holds the title of 'King of Bitcoin' with 597,000 bitcoins (worth over $72 billion), followed closely by tech giants like Tesla and Block. In Q2 2025, U.S. listed companies increased their holdings by 131,000 bitcoins, an 18% surge from the previous quarter. These companies are using real money to interpret the strategic value of 'digital gold.'

  • The Nuclear Weapon Effect of ETFs: Global Bitcoin ETF holdings have exceeded 1.4 million bitcoins, accounting for 6.8% of total supply. The annual management fee revenue from BlackRock's single fund, IBIT, exceeds that of the S&P 500 ETF. Institutional funds continue to flow in through compliant channels, creating a positive cycle of 'buy more as prices rise.'

  • Awakening of Sovereign Capital: Countries such as Bhutan and Pakistan have begun exploring Bitcoin as a sovereign reserve asset. Standard Chartered Bank predicts that the entry of sovereign wealth funds could push Bitcoin to between $500,000 and $1 million. The barriers of the traditional financial system are being washed away by the flood of Bitcoin.

II. Regulatory Breakthrough: How U.S. Legislation 'Combination Punch' Reshapes the Industry Landscape

  • Historic Legislative Window: The U.S. House of Representatives launched 'Cryptocurrency Week' this week, simultaneously reviewing major bills like the (GENIUS Act) and (CLARITY Act), attempting to integrate stablecoins into the dollar system and clarify regulatory frameworks. If legislation is enacted, the U.S. will become the first country to systematically legislate cryptocurrency, releasing trillions of dollars in incremental funds.

  • Global Regulatory Competition: Hong Kong's (Stablecoin Regulation) takes effect in August, and the EU's MiCA framework is fully implemented, with Bitcoin clearly defined as a 'commodity-type asset.' Regulatory certainty is eliminating the last barriers for traditional capital to enter.

  • Risks and Opportunities Coexist: Liu Bin, director of the Financial Research Office of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone Research Institute, warns that Bitcoin's price volatility and differing regulatory policies remain the biggest risks. However, the market is voting with its feet—on July 14, a single day transaction volume of $110.7 billion set a new record in cryptocurrency history.

III. On-Chain Dark War: A Warning from 20,000 Bitcoins that Have Been Dormant for 14 Years

  • Long-Term Holders Control the Market: 74% of Bitcoin has been locked for over 2 years, and 75% of circulating supply has not moved in the past 6 months. Exchange Bitcoin reserves have dropped to 2.4 million (the lowest in 12 years), and a supply crisis is imminent.

  • Whale Activity Signal: On July 7, two Bitcoin wallets that had been dormant for 14 years were activated, transferring 20,000 bitcoins (worth $2.18 billion). Is this early investors cashing out or the prologue to a new market trend? On-chain data shows a 121% year-on-year surge in liquidity of long-dormant Bitcoins in Q1 2025, indicating that market chips are rapidly concentrating among institutions.

  • Technical Breakthrough: On the weekly chart, Bitcoin broke through the key resistance at $115,000, with the Bollinger Bands expanding to historical extremes. The RSI is overbought but shows no signs of a pullback. The 4-hour ADX reached 27, confirming trend strength, and $112,000 has become the new 'golden support line.'

IV. My Exclusive Assessment: The Ultimate Battlefield for Bitcoin in 2025

  • Bullish Logic:

    1. Policy Dividend: The probability of the U.S. cryptocurrency bill passing exceeds 70%. If implemented, it will trigger a triple resonance of 'ETF funds + corporate increases + sovereign allocation.'

    2. Supply-Demand Imbalance: After the halving, the daily increase in Bitcoin is only 900 coins, while annual demand from global institutions exceeds 500,000 coins, creating a gap that will continue to drive prices higher.

    3. Macro Hedging: U.S. debt has surpassed $35 trillion, and the narrative of Bitcoin as an 'anti-fiscal deficit tool' is replacing mere technical faith.

  • Short Trap:

    1. Leverage Crisis: The perpetual contract funding rate approaches 30%, with open contracts reaching $43 billion, and a short-term pullback could trigger a series of liquidations.

    2. Regulatory Black Swan: If the U.S. bill adds stringent clauses or China intensifies anti-money laundering efforts, it may trigger liquidity panic.

    3. Technical Correction: If the $125,000 level cannot be effectively broken, a pullback to $112,000 support may occur.

    Bitcoin is standing at the crossroads of a 'Digital Renaissance.' In the short term, $125,000 will become the 'Normandy Beach' for the decisive battle between bulls and bears; a breakthrough will target $135,000 - $140,000. If it pulls back to $112,000, it will be an epic opportunity to get on board. In the medium to long term, Bitcoin is very likely to break $150,000 in 2025, and even challenge the $200,000 mark. But remember, in this market, fear is the best friend, and greed is the biggest enemy.


Do you think Bitcoin breaking $120,000 is the starting point of a bull market or the peak of a bubble? Leave your opinion in the comments, follow me for the most timely market interpretations and exclusive trading signals, and let's move forward together in this wealth revolution!
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