In the past few weeks, the crypto market has noticeably warmed up. Bitcoin strongly broke through the $120,000 mark, #BTC突破12万大关 and the altcoin sector has also started to rotate and rise. Among this "wave of heat," the most notable has been the "old veteran" that has been silent for years—XRP.🔥#迷因币情绪
This time, it's not just a small rebound.#xrp It is already approaching the key psychological resistance level of $3, marking the first time since 2018 that it has come close to this high point.
Combining technical indicators, capital flow, market sentiment, and whale movements, we may be witnessing the start of a medium to long-term bullish cycle for XRP.#山寨季何时到来
💡 Fundamentals + Financials: A "market cap dark horse" driven by dual forces.
As of the time of writing, XRP is priced at $2.92, with a daily increase of 4.78%, and the 7-day volatility range between $2.25 and $2.95.
What is even more striking is that XRP's market cap has soared to $168.32 billion, officially surpassing the stablecoin giant USDT, rising to the third position in the crypto asset market cap rankings.
This is not a coincidence. According to data jointly disclosed by Santiment and Crypto.news, the number of wallets holding over one million XRP has reached a historical high of 2,743. These so-called "whale addresses" control over $47 billion worth of XRP, indicating that market leaders are gathering.
📊 At the same time, XRP's derivatives market is also heating up:
Futures trading volume increased by 10.48%, reaching $17.31 billion;
Open interest has increased by 10.64%, reaching $8.12 billion.
This indicates that the market is undergoing a phase of leveraged inflow, with traders holding clear directional expectations for future trends.
🧠 The technical structure is sound; if the weekly close stabilizes above $3, a bullish pattern will be established.
From a structural perspective, XRP is currently above all major technical moving averages, and the price is significantly diverging from the 200-day, 50-day, and 20-day moving averages, indicating that a strong breakout has been initially completed and is entering a trend confirmation phase.
Key technical indicators are as follows:
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) continues to show positive divergence, with bullish momentum strengthening;
RSI (Relative Strength Index) is at 83, having entered the overbought zone, but has not yet formed a top divergence;
The upper Bollinger Band has been reached, short-term fluctuations may occur, but if accompanied by a breakout with increased volume, the trend will accelerate;
The 20-day SMA is around $2.85, becoming the first support reference level;
The 10-day moving average support is around $2.60, with the 200-day moving average far below at $2.14, clearly delineating the bull-bear dividing line.
📌 Analyst Ali Martinez points out:
"If the week closes successfully above $3, XRP will form an effective breakout structure, and the price center may shift towards the $3.50-4.20 range, with a subsequent challenge of the $6 level."
🐋 Whales are accumulating, capital is focusing, and on-chain behavior reveals strong confidence.
XRP whale behavior is worth close attention. Equities Tracker and Santiment data show that million-XRP-level wallets are continuously growing, and the average holding period is extending. This indicates that these wallets are not only increasing their positions but also choosing a mid to long-term holding strategy rather than short-term arbitrage.
The timing of whale positioning often has forward-looking signal value, especially as XRP has emerged from a long consolidation phase, and institutional and large holder participation may further drive trend formation.
🧨 The impact of Trump's tariffs is limited; the market quickly recovers.
In early July, the Trump team announced plans to impose a 30% tariff on EU and Mexican goods, which briefly triggered a rise in global market risk aversion. However, from the trend, XRP quickly recovered after a brief drop, indicating that the crypto market's ability to withstand macro shocks is strengthening.
📈 During the same period, the total crypto market cap rebounded by 1.16%, while the traditional financial market is still digesting policy expectations. The "independence" of the crypto market is gradually strengthening, which may become a safe haven for more funds to avoid macro risks.
🔁 Is Bitcoin's "rhythm cooling"? The altcoin season's undercurrents are stirring.
It is noteworthy that despite Bitcoin's strong new high of $120,000, the market's reaction has been somewhat lukewarm. Santiment analyst Brian points out:
"Unlike previous peaks, this round of BTC increase lacks broad emotional support, and the demand for altcoin rotation is accumulating."
Data shows:
BTC Dominance index remains high, with funds not yet rotating on a large scale into the Altcoin market. However, historical experience shows that every time BTC consolidates and trading volume shrinks, it often signals the impending arrival of an 'altcoin explosion cycle.'
📍 AMBCrypto and Alphractal research also indicate that the uncertainty index of U.S. economic policy continues to decline, a trend that usually favors the rise of risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
📅 Key variable: The July 15 CPI will reveal the short-term market direction.
In the short term, the upcoming U.S. June CPI report (July 15) will provide important guidance for the market.
Market forecasts CPI to rise by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year (higher than last month's 2.4%);
Core CPI is also expected to rise by 0.3%;
If the data exceeds expectations, it may trigger concerns in the market over "delayed interest rate cuts" or "higher rates maintained for a longer time," putting pressure on risk assets. Conversely, if inflation is mild and controllable, the crypto market may welcome a new window of risk appetite.
✅ Summary: Is XRP at the starting point of a "super cycle"?
Overall, XRP is currently at a critical turning point, with technical breakthroughs, positive fundamentals, active capital flow, and macro expectations resonating, resulting in multiple favorable factors fermenting simultaneously:
If the $3 level is successfully broken and confirmed by the closing price, XRP may challenge the $3.50-4.20 range in the short term; while the medium to long-term target could be $6 or even higher historical peak areas.
✍️ Do your own research, manage risk well, and I wish everyone a smooth sailing in the crypto world!🌊
🔁 Welcome to like and share with your crypto friends, don't forget to follow me for more insights on the latest developments in the crypto space!
💬 If you have any projects you want to discuss, feel free to join us! Let's explore the crypto world together and cheer each other on!😎
