Traders are constantly waiting, holding their breath, for the start of a new supercycle — a phase of strong growth that deviates from the usual four-year rhythm tied to bitcoin halvings.
Since 2021, analysts have increasingly spoken of a paradigm shift: the market could shoot up 400% above previous highs. One such optimist is the user X under the nickname CryptoKaleo, who recently wrote about the 'real' supercycle.
Even if his predictions turn out to be correct, it is still too early to draw conclusions. The total market capitalization of the crypto market is $3.4 trillion — only 29% higher than the peak of November 2021 ($2.65 trillion).
We are still far from a real supercycle, but there are several indicators to watch.
Weak dollar, rise of crypto-ETFs, and strategic reserves in bitcoin
One of the possible catalysts for the supercycle is the fall of the dollar index (DXY) below the 95 mark. The last time this happened was in November 2021. Long-term weakening of the dollar against other currencies may indicate that investors are losing confidence in the financial stability of the US. In this case, part of the $24.7 trillion invested in government bonds may start flowing into alternative assets — including crypto.
Another powerful factor is the explosive growth of the crypto-ETF industry. Despite the excitement, the assets under management in cryptocurrency funds amount to only $190 billion — a drop in the bucket compared to traditional markets. For comparison, the three largest #etf in the S&P 500 control $2 trillion.
So far, the idea of strategic bitcoin reserves in the US remains vague. If the Trump administration really starts accumulating at least 200,000 $BTC , it could sharply change the market sentiment. A similar effect could be triggered by interest from large corporations like Google, Apple, or Microsoft if they start holding bitcoin in their reserves.
Interest from retail investors and hype around thematic tokens
Without retail, there will be no supercycle. So far, interest from ordinary users remains sluggish. Queries like 'buy bitcoin' and 'buy cryptocurrency' have not grown for five months and are far from the peaks of November 2024. The Coinbase and Robinhood apps are also losing ground in the App Store rankings in the 'Finance' category.
Yes, in this cycle, institutions have taken the initiative, but it is typically retail FOMO that triggers real parabolic rallies. Another important signal is the return of loud narratives in altcoins: whether it’s AI tokens, casino coins, or classic memes with cats and dogs.
Currently, the total market capitalization of meme coins is $68.5 billion. For comparison, in December 2024 it reached a record $140.5 billion.
All of this is still just speculation. The supercycle scenario depends on dozens of macro and geopolitical factors: whether the Fed can avoid recession, how global trade relations will change, and much more.
But the closer the market gets to these conditions, the higher the chance of capital growth to $13.2 trillion — four times the peak of November 2021.
