Don't Count Your Chickens Before They Hatch—A Hard Lesson for Traders

I'll be honest with you—at the beginning of my journey as a trader, I made a classic mistake. I would open a position, see it moving slightly in my favor, and before the trade had fully developed, I was already calculating how much profit I would make. My confidence would soar, and I would start planning my next move as if the money was already in my pocket. Then... boom. The market turned around, and all that excitement turned into regret.

Does this sound familiar?

This is what happens when we count our chickens before they hatch. In trading, nothing is guaranteed—a good setup doesn't always mean a winning trade. The market doesn't care about our expectations; it does what it wants. That's why discipline and patience matter more than wishful thinking.

A Lesson on Candlesticks: The Hammer

Take the hammer candlestick, for example. It's a powerful signal that often shows buyers stepping in after a downtrend. You see one forming and think, “That's it! The reversal is happening! It's time to go all in.” But here’s the problem: a hammer alone is not enough.

Wait for Confirmation: The market needs to prove its worth. A following bullish candlestick after the hammer is what gives it weight. Jumping in too early is like assuming an egg will hatch just because it looks good from the outside.

Manage Risk: Even if the setup looks perfect, always use a stop-loss. I've seen great hammers fail and catch traders who were too confident.

The Reality Check

Every trade is just a probability, not a promise. Instead of fantasizing about potential gains, focus on executing your strategy with discipline. Let the trade develop, confirm your setup, and protect your capital. Because in trading, the only thing worse than missing out on a win is assuming you've won too early—only to watch the market