Talk about this round of altcoin season

1: This round has experienced an altcoin season (early 2024 and mid-December), and there will still be this level of altcoin season in the future, but there won't be the typical altcoin season like the previous bull market. This means that the current altcoin season is a small range rebound of 2-3 times after the altcoins wash out to a new low, while BTC is stagnating and consolidating at a new peak. Moreover, it is limited to high-quality altcoins that either have certain consensus, have active application landing data, or factors like governance and dividends. Particularly high-quality altcoins may be stronger and could see 3-5 times or even 10 times gains, but it is very difficult to filter and hold them, and their high volatility is not conducive to defending against declines at the end of a bull market. In any case, ETH, as the leader of altcoins, has passed the ETF, and there will ultimately be a wave of market movement (5-6K); now cutting losses is not necessary. For other altcoins, it is advisable to only switch to BTC at higher points each time.

2: Previously, an altcoin prosperity index of 75 was the starting point for an altcoin season, but from this round onward, perhaps 75 is the peak of the altcoin season; when the index reaches 75, the altcoin season will tend to end. There are tens of millions to over a billion altcoins now, with thousands of new coins appearing on-chain every day. Although they are all MEME coins that will ultimately go to zero, this gambling method is relatively simple, fair, and efficient. New retail investors are going on-chain and not playing with old coins on secondary markets; old investors can only take over on CEX, and new coins basically plummet as soon as they are listed. The top 100 coins may still bounce during the altcoin season, but those further down the list shouldn’t hope to sift gold from the sand.

3: In the future, the crypto circle will be no different from the US stock market, with 1% of projects accounting for 90% of the market value and growth. At the end of a bull market, there shouldn’t be too much ambition; altcoins shouldn’t have too much ambition either. In short, take profits when you can; even if there is some difference from your expectations, it’s best to preserve the profits you have. Retail investors should not expect to earn 10 times or more in the crypto space anymore; achieving 3-5 times in each round is already good. A return of 3-5 times from the end of a bear market to the middle of a bull market in 2 years is the most stable and reliable.

PS: Today someone commented and cursed me, saying that an altcoin rising 2-3 times is called an altcoin season, and that I must be crazy. I want to say that those who still fantasize about altcoins rising 100 times are the ones who are crazy.