The recent surge of Bitcoin to historic highs, surpassing $118,000, could lead one to believe in a new bull run. However, beneath the golden appearance of euphoric charts lies a crack: the almost total absence of retail investors. This is a rise driven by institutions, by ETFs boosted with billions, but whose roots remain fragile, as they are disconnected from the popular momentum that has historically accompanied major bullish cycles.
Google searches for the term 'bitcoin' have only increased by 8% despite these records, and remain 60% lower than the peak of November 2024, following Trump's election. A surprising contrast that reflects a psychological reality: individuals think they have missed the boat. The result? They remain at the platform while the locomotive speeds off without them. And this absence of popular support could become a Achilles' heel if the macroeconomic winds change.
Worse still, this retail disinterest is interpreted by some as a lurking bearish signal. Because when an asset rises without popular enthusiasm, it lacks a true emotional foundation. Greed is absent, which means that panic is not far behind.
Jamie Dimon, the head of JPMorgan, sows doubt in an overly confident market. According to him, traders seriously underestimate the risk of additional monetary tightening. Where the market grants only a 20% probability of a rate hike, Dimon bets on 40 to 50%. A statement that serves as a warning: what if the Fed does not ease, or even raises its rates again?
CME FedWatch data still suggests a glimmer of hope: 59.7% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September. But beware of the illusion of consensus. Inflation continues to be fueled by exogenous factors such as tariffs, immigration, or budget deficits. All of these are ticking time bombs that could tip the balance in favor of a status quo, or even a tightening.
And in this scenario, Bitcoin could be violently confronted by reality. Because despite its status as a decentralized asset, the crypto king is not immune to liquidity shocks or changes in macroeconomic sentiment. A rate hike, even a moderate one, could reduce risk appetite, and institutions (the current drivers of the rally) are not known for their loyalty in times of turmoil.
The paradox is evident: never have Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded such inflows: over $2.7 billion in a week. And yet, the retail market has never seemed so indifferent. This disassociation between institutional flows and popular inertia could be the swan song of this rise if it relies on a single pillar that is too narrow.
Because a healthy market is based on balance: institutions provide the mass, but individuals infuse the dynamics and longevity. However, the absence of 'small holders' raises a brutal question: what will happen if institutions take their profits before the general public returns? The very idea that the current rise rests solely on structured funds, with cold and mechanical arbitrages, should alert us.
And if the rate environment does not become more accommodative, if geopolitical uncertainty persists, then Bitcoin's strength could be tested sooner than expected. Those who think that $117,000 is the new floor could quickly discover that they were actually walking on a slab suspended over the void.
Bitcoin is high, certainly. But it is alone. Without the support of individuals, and with the threat of monetary tightening, the correction could be brutal. This is not about prophesying a crash, but rather reminding that any peak reached without popular foundation or lasting macroeconomic clarity runs a serious risk of collapsing upon itself. Arthur Hayes, for his part, anticipates a drop to $90,000 before a possible tenfold takeoff.
