Since April, the US stock market has started a strong rebound, with no significant downturns occurring to date. Although the current 'one-sided structure' is performing strongly, it is also continuously accumulating the risk of technical pullbacks.

Looking back at history, the Nasdaq's rise that started in January 2019 also experienced two mild pullbacks in March and May before it could continue a longer-term trend. Especially after April 2019, the market entered a 'high vulnerability period', and once an adjustment is triggered, the resulting fluctuations are often more severe.

If the US stock market experiences a corrective phase starting in late July or early August, the cryptocurrency market is likely to react first, and a deep adjustment may occur between August and September. This adjustment could very well be the 'prelude to a major year-end rally'.

As October begins and the interest rate cut expectations come into play, the macro liquidity environment may completely shift towards easing. Referring to the rhythm of Q4 2020, if funds re-enter the market, the crypto market is expected to welcome a strong main upward wave at the year-end level, potentially starting the next true bull market cycle.