7.13 Market Analysis: Has the Small Bull Arrived? Understand These 3 Points to Avoid Losses
Brothers, good weekend! The warmth in the crypto world is gradually becoming apparent, has the small bull really arrived quietly? Opportunities are always reserved for those who are prepared, congratulations to those still on the ride! How will the market move next? Here are 3 core logics to clarify for you👇
Big Cycle: Layout Window Before the Federal Reserve Cuts Rates
✅ Rumors suggest Powell will step down, Trump has long arranged for loyalists to take over the Federal Reserve
✅ The new chairman is likely to aggressively cut rates, with BTC targets aiming for 150,000+
✅ The Trump family and their loyalists have already bottomed out during the trade war, with costs around 80,000-90,000; this wave of increase is meant to fill their pockets
Chip Structure: Average Cost Hides the Secret of Price Fluctuation
⚠️ 30% of BTC chip costs are around 100,000, currently only floating a profit of 10%
⚠️ Low average cost = risk accumulation; high average cost = greater space
⚠️ These people won't dump until they've doubled their profits, short-term selling pressure is limited
Market Sentiment: Retail Investors Are Not Yet Crazy, the Bull Market Is Far from Its Peak
📌 In the past six months, retail investors have been consistently cutting losses, while institutions are crazily increasing their positions
📌 The peak of a bull market is always when retail investors borrow to chase high (referencing the recent incident of using credit cards to buy gold)
📌 Retail investors have just realized that “it's not falling but rising,” and are not yet in the crazy stage of borrowing to chase high
Continuous Favorable Funding Conditions
▪️ In the last two days of this week, ETFs saw a net inflow of 1.1 billion + 1 billion
▪️ Since June 27, stablecoins have finally started to flow into exchanges
▪️ The BTC supply has not significantly increased, and selling pressure is controllable
There may be a slight short-term adjustment, but it won't change the big direction! Remember: don't be swayed by short-term fluctuations, understanding the big trend is key to profiting🚀 How high do you think this wave can go? Let's chat in the comments～
