Recently, the narrative around stablecoins has become increasingly popular.
Friends in the circle may not feel much of a change, as they are already using stablecoins as a medium of exchange for daily trading.
Because all friends in the crypto circle know that.
To exchange for Bitcoin or Ethereum and other crypto assets, one must use stablecoins as an intermediary for conversion.
On the contrary, friends outside the circle are more curious.
Some even say they want to invest in stablecoins.
So what are the narratives and potential of stablecoins, and what opportunities do they mean for us?
Today we will take a detailed look for everyone!
Core Viewpoint:
If the entire world really uses stablecoins (like USDT, USDC, which are pegged to the U.S. dollar) for cross-border payment settlements, this would be a huge potential long-term benefit for Bitcoin.
In the long run, it is possible for Bitcoin's price to soar to hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars, but the path will not be smooth and will be filled with complex games.
Now let's discuss the basic logic:
Why might the popularity of stablecoins lead to a surge in Bitcoin prices?
1. Stablecoins are opening the floodgates for the entire crypto world.
The money from stablecoins has increased, and cross-border payments represent an astronomical market. If businesses and individuals use stablecoins for remittances and trade settlements, it means massive amounts of funds will flow from the traditional banking system into the cryptocurrency pool.
Imagine, with trillions of dollars flowing globally every day, even if only a small portion flows in, it will cause the entire pool (including Bitcoin) to surge.
More people are aware, and as everyone needs to use stablecoins for payments, they will inevitably have to engage with wallets and exchanges, which are the basic infrastructure of cryptocurrencies.
This is equivalent to giving Bitcoin free global promotion, making millions aware of its existence and significantly lowering the 'entry' threshold. As more people use it, demand may naturally increase.
2. Bitcoin's 'role upgrade': from a payment tool to 'digital gold'.
Stablecoins have taken over the payment market, and using Bitcoin for payments is actually not very convenient (slow, high volatility in fees).
If stablecoins take care of fast, cheap, and stable cross-border payments, one of Bitcoin's most 'practical' uses will diminish.
Focusing on 'valuable things': But this may pressure Bitcoin to return to its core selling point - limited supply (only 21 million), decentralized, resistant to censorship 'digital gold' or 'ultimate store of value'.
When stablecoins become the 'cash' of everyday transactions,
Bitcoin is more like the 'gold bars' you hoard to hedge against risks.
Hedging against 'stablecoin risks': Stablecoins are called 'stable', but they are not absolutely safe.
They are usually backed by companies or banks with collateral assets (like U.S. dollars or U.S. Treasuries).
If these companies encounter problems (such as being investigated or going bankrupt), or if collateral issues arise (like a collapse of U.S. Treasuries), stablecoins may also become unstable.
At this time, Bitcoin, which does not rely on any single institution and has a constant total supply, may be seen as a more 'solid' safe-haven asset.
3. The chain reaction brought about by regulatory 'green lights':
Compliance is fundamental: If the whole world uses stablecoins for payments, it inevitably means that regulatory agencies in various countries basically recognize this system (even if they may regulate it very strictly).
This is equivalent to giving the entire cryptocurrency industry a 'temporary pass'.
Large institutions are rushing in; the regulatory framework has become clear, and previously hesitant banks, funds, and large companies are now willing to participate. They may buy Bitcoin in large amounts as part of their asset allocation through compliant products like Bitcoin ETFs and futures.
Think about it: if pension funds and hedge funds even invest a small portion of their money in Bitcoin, that would create astronomical demand.
How high can Bitcoin rise in the long run? The underlying logical chain.
1: Core support and underlying logic for Bitcoin price increase.
First: Stablecoins become mainstream payment tools. (Assuming this really happens) Massive funds and users will flood into the crypto ecosystem.
Secondly: Bitcoin's positioning in people's minds has clearly shifted to being a scarce store of value (digital gold).
Third: The traditional financial world (institutions and wealthy individuals) is beginning to view Bitcoin as a necessary 'alternative asset' and hedging tool within a compliant framework.
Fourth Core Driving Force: The global fiat currency system continues to face pressures such as inflation and debt, leading to a decline in trust in 'centralized currency'.
Fifth ultimate support: Bitcoin's absolute scarcity (21 million coins) will generate huge scarcity premiums when massive funds and safe-haven demand flood in.
Using a time dimension to predict Bitcoin's price potential, a rough estimate.
In the short term (1-3 years), if stablecoin payments begin to be widely adopted, Bitcoin could surge to $100,000 - $200,000. The key is whether the total market cap of stablecoins breaks the trillion-dollar level (currently in the hundreds of billions).
In the medium term (5-10 years), if the stablecoin system matures and the world experiences significant inflation or currency crises, the consensus around Bitcoin as 'digital gold' will deepen, and institutional allocation ratios will significantly rise, potentially reaching $200,000 - $500,000.
Long term (over 10 years): If trust in the global fiat currency system is severely undermined, Bitcoin's scarcity will become a core asset pursued globally, and if stablecoin settlement volumes reach a significant proportion of global trade (like 30%+), then $500,000 - $1,000,000 or even higher is not out of the question.
This is equivalent to Bitcoin's market value approaching or even surpassing that of gold (currently, gold's total market value is about $13-14 trillion, while Bitcoin at $1 million corresponds to about $20 trillion in market value).
The most important conclusions and reminders.
Core logical chain: Popularization of stablecoins => Explosion of the crypto ecosystem + Fiat currency issues become prominent => Bitcoin becomes digital gold => Scarcity is crazily pursued by massive funds => Price surges.
The biggest uncertainty:
The government's attitude is a game changer: If they strongly suppress Bitcoin or launch a powerful central bank digital currency that takes over the stablecoin market, the entire story will fall apart.
The risks of stablecoins themselves: If the stablecoin system collapses (like a massive trust crisis), Bitcoin will also face challenges.
'Stability' comes at a price: for compliance, stablecoins may become highly centralized and controlled, which goes against some original intentions of cryptocurrencies and may limit innovation and development across the entire ecosystem.
In simple terms, using stablecoins for payments globally is equivalent to providing Bitcoin with a huge stage and attracting countless viewers.
Whether Bitcoin can perform the 'high-priced digital gold' show on this stage ultimately depends on whether its story of 'scarcity and value preservation' is strong enough, and whether anyone (regulators) rushes on stage to disrupt it, or whether the stage (stablecoin system) collapses on its own.
Logically, there is a possibility of prices rising to extremely high levels, but the risks are equally significant.
Finally, a risk reminder: the above logical reasoning is for reference only and does not constitute actual investment advice.
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