【Aave Market Analysis and Strategy Update 2025-07-13 13:00】

（1）On June 28, I repeatedly mentioned the resistance level of 306.63. I have been shorting around 306.63 for several days, and at one point was stuck for 2 days. I clearly indicated to short in the previous days, and those who wanted to short with me could have done so, not an afterthought. Yesterday, I further pointed out the 4-hour MACD death cross + area divergence + height divergence, which could very likely be the ultimate top. Today's analysis is ahead of the market.

（2）The rebound from 114.05 to 325.41 is a 5-wave drive wave. Before a new 5-wave drive wave comes out, there will not be a new low below 114.05, no matter how it pulls back.

（3）The decline after 325.41 is a wxy adjustment wave or a wxyxz adjustment wave.

（4）The drop from the red line 325.41 to 213 is part or all of the adjustment after 325.41.

（5）The rise after 213, unless it can produce 5 segments, otherwise the decline after 325.41 is still not over.

（6）If the green line rebounds below 330.42 and the length is shorter than the blue line, the probability of producing the fifth segment rise will be relatively low. Once it pierces 284.86, it can be completely confirmed that there is no fifth segment rise, and the adjustment after 325.41 continues.

（7）The rebound from 213 to 318.17 consumed Fibonacci 0.8 at 316.05, but did not effectively stabilize. If it does not effectively stabilize at 316.05, then the fifth segment rise cannot come out.

（8）The position for adding to short positions is at 308.05-313.11. As long as the short position does not effectively stabilize at 316.05, it should be held, with a stop loss if it pierces 318.22. After the short position drops to 293, set a breakeven profit protection (293 is the neckline position of the 4-hour head and shoulders top), take profit partially when it drops to above 278-284.86, and then hold onto it until it approaches the breakeven point.

（9）Assuming there is a fifth segment rise, the target is 330.42-357.87-374.83.

（10）Assuming there is no fifth segment rise, the Y wave pullback target after 325.41 is between 200-205.76.