Saturday, 7.12 Next week's long line, beware of the risk of a pullback next week
It’s the weekend again, and the market is quiet, with US stocks closed, causing market fluctuations to nearly halt. Looking back at this week's trend, Bitcoin strongly broke out after a period of consolidation, reaching a high of around 118800. On the news front, initial jobless claims data, Trump’s policy statements, tariff issues, and discussions on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have repeatedly impacted the market, directly driving the pace of this round of increases.
Although the coin price continues to hit new highs, many investors suffered losses this week while chasing rises and selling falls. We also encountered setbacks in trading; fortunately, we had a substantial cushion of previous profits, making account drawdowns manageable. Remember, there are no perpetual winners in the market. If you only focus on the ups and downs of K-lines and ignore the fundamental rules, you are destined to be harvested!
Outlook for next week's market:
From a long-term perspective, the market has been in a bullish pattern overall for the past two years, with monthly and weekly levels showing a trend of sideways upward movement. This week, a strong bullish candle broke through the previous consolidation range, forming a top-bottom conversion, but we must be wary of a technical pullback after consecutive rises—even if the trend has not reversed, it is not advisable to blindly chase highs in the short term.
From a daily perspective, bullish momentum is strong, and after consolidating, it has continued to push upward, combined with news stimuli breaking the original structure, with moving averages and Bollinger Bands opening upward simultaneously. However, there are signs of stagnation at the current high level, and bullish volume is continuously shrinking, indicating that a pullback correction is likely to follow the consecutive rises.
Operational strategy:
When Bitcoin rebounds to the 119000-120000 area, consider placing short positions, targeting 115000-110000.
When Ethereum rebounds to the 3000-3050 area, consider going short, targeting 2700-2500.
