🚀 Why – What – Impact

Retail wallets holding under 10 BTC are now buying 28 000 BTC a month—more than double the new coins miners produce. Exchange reserves have fallen to a seven-year low of 1.36 M BTC, setting the stage for every ETF inflow to hit price like a sledgehammer.

🔑 Key Takeaways

  • Issuance vacuum: “Shrimps” (< 1 BTC) add ~17 600 BTC per month; “Crabs” (1-10 BTC) soak up another 11 000+.

  • ETF after-shock: Retail buying spikes right after big spot-ETF creation days, effectively front-running institutions.

  • Liquidity drain: Glassnode shows combined shrimp-and-crab balances climbing even as whales distribute coins to smaller UTXOs, locking supply in long-term hands.

🚀 Market Consequences

  • Float squeeze — Nearly half of all BTC hasn’t moved in three years; liquid supply shrinks while demand grows.

  • Volatility amplifier — A single day of 1 % ETF creation (≈ 900 BTC) now collides with an already over-subscribed market, exaggerating swings like the sprint to the new $118 740 all-time high.

  • Price elasticity — CoinMetrics data suggest each 1 % drop in exchange reserves now drives roughly a 2 % move higher over the following month—far steeper than two years ago.

⚠️ Watch These Triggers

  • Profit-taking above $120 K could slow shrimp accumulation.

  • Elevated on-chain fees might discourage tiny UTXO consolidation, slightly loosening supply.

  • Regulatory hiccups (e.g., a delayed CLARITY Act vote) could stall ETF inflows, easing squeeze pressure.

▶️ Action Points

  1. Monitor Glassnode’s cohort dashboards; if retail absorption stays above miner output, dips likely remain shallow.

  2. Track total exchange reserves: a sustained rise back toward 1.5 M BTC would signal real sell-side liquidity.

  3. Keep one eye on ETF creation/redemption—still the quickest lever on price momentum.

Bottom Line

Tiny wallets are engineering a stealth supply crunch. As long as shrimps and crabs keep out-buying miners, every fresh institutional bid will hit a thinner float and shove BTC higher. Ignore the little guys at your peril: they’re quietly writing the next chapter of the bull run.

👉 Tap $BTC if you believe retail hoarding keeps the squeeze alive. Comment with your next price target & follow for on-chain updates!

Disclaimer: Third-party data included; not financial advice.