In the wave of cryptocurrencies, Ethereum remains a dual barometer of technological innovation and market sentiment—when the four-hour candlestick chart outlines the contours of an ascending wedge, a battle over the $3000 level has quietly commenced.
Technical Analysis: Bulls are gathering momentum, but caution against overbought signals is needed.
Trends and Key Levels
Currently, ETH's four-hour candlestick shows a typical upward trend, with prices rebounding from a low of $2367.53 to around $2965.51. The key support level at $2965 (current price concentration area) if lost, may drop to $2487; whereas, if the resistance level at $3040.95 is broken, it will open space for $3071 and even $3100.Indicators resonate bullishly, but hidden concerns emerge.
MACD: The histogram remains positive and shortens, indicating that bullish momentum is weakening but the trend is unchanged.
RSI: Values are close to the 70 overbought line; if RSI peaks and falls back after breaking $3040, short-term pullback caution is needed.
Bollinger Bands: The opening expands, with prices approaching the upper band, indicating increased volatility.
Trading Volume: Recently, the volume-price correlation has been good, but the last bullish candlestick showed reduced trading volume, raising doubts about the sustainability of the rise.
News: Technical upgrades and institutional entry resonate, but regulatory risks remain.
Positive Drivers
Proto-Danksharding Upgrade: The test network processes 120 million transactions in a single day, directly enhancing the practicality of ETH.
Institutional Accumulation Wave: BlackRock's ETH trust holdings reach 832,000 units (+218%), and CME ETH futures open interest surpasses $5 billion.
Policy Benefits: The EU's MiCA regulation clarifies ETH as a 'technology asset', and the SEC approves 3 ETH ETFs, attracting $830 million in the first week.
Potential Risks
Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations: The probability of a 25 basis point cut in July is rising, but tariff policies may delay the easing pace.
Technical Vulnerability Threat: The Solana outage highlights stability differences in Layer 1, with the Ethereum client Prysm online rate at 99.998%.
Regulatory Uncertainty: The U.S. Treasury plans to classify mixer transactions as criminal offenses, which may impact market sentiment.
Candlestick Judge · Final Verdict: $3000 is both a touchstone and a new starting point.
Currently, ETH is in a dual-driven phase of 'technical upgrades + institutional entry', but the $3000 level holds both psychological and technical significance.
Successful Breakthrough: It will validate the narrative of 'deflationary assets', attracting traditional capital allocation, with a target price looking up to $3100-$3200.
Resistance and Retracement: Need to observe support in the $2800-$2900 range; if a 'double bottom' structure forms, it remains a good mid-term layout opportunity.
Short-term (within 1 week) outlook is for oscillation upwards; mid-term (1 month) caution is warranted against the risk of 'buying expectations, selling facts' with ETF approval adjustments.
Mastering Candlesticks: Supreme Secrets: Core + Satellite, both offense and defense.
Spot Strategy
Incremental Position Building: Gradually buy in the $2850-$2950 range, with a stop loss set at $2750.
Breakthrough Follow-Up: If it effectively stabilizes above $3040, additional positions can be added, targeting $3150-$3200.
Derivatives Hedging
Options Strategy: Buy $3000 call options (premium accounts for 3%), while selling $3200 call options (premium accounts for 1.5%), constructing a spread strategy.
Perpetual Contracts: Pay attention to funding rates; if they remain positive, reduce leverage to below 3x.
Ecological Layout
Layer2 Tokens: Allocate 30% of funds to ecological tokens like Arbitrum and Optimism to hedge against main chain volatility.
Staking Returns: Participate in flexible staking through platforms like Gate (minimum investment of 0.1 ETH), with an annualized return of about 7.5%.
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