I’m bullish on Bitcoin heading into Christmas. According to the “power law” model, BTC is currently running ahead of its long-term exponential growth curve—similar to past bull-cycle peaks. That suggests a potential rally toward the “extreme greed” zone between roughly $200K and $300K by December .
Macro tailwinds back this up: a weakening US dollar (DXY falling under 100) and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts—and maybe even a pivot toward easing—could spark a broad risk-on rally. Bitcoin stands to be one of the main beneficiaries .
Institutional flows also reinforce the case. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have captured about 70% of gold’s inflows in 2025 so far, signaling a growing shift of capital into BTC .
In short, the power law model, macroeconomic conditions, and increasing institutional adoption all align—making a run toward $200K–$300K by Christmas seem possible, though a pullback may follow once momentum wanes.
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